Europe Economics Focus The outlook for E-Z peripheral spreads after COVID-19 We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low... 4th December 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Markets Focus The outlook for E-Z peripheral spreads after COVID-19 We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low... 4th December 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery Policymakers at the ECB have already flagged that they will extend their support for the economy at their monetary policy meeting next Thursday, primarily by “recalibrating” the Pandemic Emergency... 3rd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone retail sales took them well above their level in February, but they are almost certain to have dropped back in November. And the PMIs suggest that activity in the wider... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) Unusually big revisions to the back data show that the euro-zone labour market was in worse shape over the summer than previously indicated. The jobless rate now appears to be falling, but the recent... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) The stability of euro-zone core inflation at just 0.2% in November is further evidence that the decline in inflation this year has not been primarily due to temporary factors. Both headline and core... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Nov.) The fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone in November was hardly a surprise given the tightening of restrictions. But the ESI is higher than it was in the spring... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine We now assume that vaccines will be rolled out in the euro-zone next year and that most of the restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, demand rebounds fairly rapidly and... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to December package The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting confirms that policymakers were becoming more concerned about the outlook for both inflation and GDP growth in late October and that they were... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Lending growth is likely to pick up in the final two months of the year as firms again take advantage of loan guarantees to replace lost revenues during lockdowns. And the ECB looks set to support... 26th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP? The ECB looks set to announce an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme in December and to extend the time for which it pledges to make net purchases and reinvestments. 25th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The drop in the Composite PMI to well below 50 adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will post another sizeable contraction in Q4. But with vaccines looking increasingly likely to be rolled... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
