Europe Economics Update Lagarde dashes hopes of early addition to stimulus While no policy change was expected today, President Lagarde used the press conference to convey a slightly less gloomy message about the economy. She also dampened expectations for an early increase... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably not too worried about the euro While the euro’s recent appreciation has generated a lot of attention, it is in fact close to its historical average by most measures. So while ECB policymakers may note at today’s press conference... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP showed that the plunge in economic activity in the second quarter was broad-based, with investment and exports faring particularly poorly. The rapid rebound in Q3... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slows and inflation turns negative The rebound phase has now come to an end. Retail sales declined in July and both the business surveys and high frequency data suggest that economic activity levelled off in August. Of course, the... 4th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak data and strong(ish) euro ahead of ECB meeting The latest data suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is losing pace and price pressures are extremely weak. With some ECB policymakers also concerned by the appreciation of the euro, they... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Growth slowdown, virus rebound to keep ECB dovish The ECB will not make any major policy changes at next week’s Governing Council meeting, but President Lagarde will emphasise that policymakers expect to use the current €1.35trn PEPP envelope in full... 3rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Measuring public sector output in the pandemic National statistics offices in the euro-zone have taken different approaches to estimating public sector services output during the lockdowns this year. This means that the extent of the falls in GDP... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug) The recovery in euro-zone retail sales ended in July as sales fell slightly. And final PMIs for August suggest that the economy is growing only slowly, while Italy and Spain’s recovery may have gone... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead? The Fed’s switch to an average inflation targeting regime and revised interpretation of its full employment goal are a response to challenges which are common to many economies, including the euro... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) & Unemployment (July) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low of 0.4% in August and we think that it will remain around that level for the next year at least. Meanwhile, labour market data also published today show... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (August) The increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for August was smaller than in the previous two months and left it well below its February level, while the index for Spain actually fell... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has... 27th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (August) With the number of confirmed virus cases rising and employment support schemes being run down, it comes as no surprise that the EC’s measure of consumer confidence levelled off in August. That is... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Early signs that activity might be falling The recent increase in virus cases across the euro-zone has been concentrated among younger people than in the first wave of the crisis, so it is putting less pressure on public health systems and... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) The fall back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August suggests that the initial V-shaped rebound following the lifting of the lockdowns is already fizzling out. We suspect that activity will remain... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
