Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November suggests that the region’s recovery has not lost further momentum. But with supply shortages still acute, Covid restrictions being... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Austria lockdown casts shadow over rest of euro-zone The “full lockdown” in Austria announced earlier today is a response to the rapid deterioration in the Covid situation there and we estimate that it could knock around 1.5% off the country’s GDP in Q4... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Commodities Focus Sky-high European steel prices on borrowed time After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Covid restrictions another headwind Several euro-zone governments have tightened coronavirus rules lately and more measures are on the cards, including in Germany. On the whole, these are set to be less severe than they were earlier... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to widen a bit We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That... 17th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Oct.) October’s euro-zone inflation data confirm that core price pressures are weaker than in other advanced economies. That said, we think headline inflation will remain above 2% until late 2022. 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage indexation won’t drive second round effects The current bout of high inflation will put much less direct upward pressure on negotiated wages in the euro-zone than in previous such episodes. This is because far fewer agreements now contain... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery picks up pace The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly... 16th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB will persist with QE and negative rates for years We expect the ECB to interpret a period of above-target inflation as “transient” even if it lasts for well over a year. Although it will end its emergency PEPP programme next March, the Bank will step... 15th November 2021 · 25 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus still underestimating impact of remote work The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of earnings expectations in US & Europe We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid cases and inflation on the rise Inflation releases in Germany and the US this week highlighted how price pressures are still weaker in the euro-zone. Next week, we will get the full breakdown of euro-zone inflation in October, which... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
