Europe Economics Weekly Signs of life after lockdown This week we got some evidence that euro-zone economies are coming back to life after the lockdowns, led by stronger household spending. But they remain far from fighting fit. And next week, several... 19th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property values will fall sharply, but won’t reach GFC lows Thin deal evidence and market uncertainty has meant that the disruption from the virus has been slow to feed through to property values. However, significant falls in economic activity in H1 and... 19th June 2020 · 32 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consumption rebounded strongly in May If the recent increase in US retail sales is anything to go by, consumption in the euro-zone will have recovered sharply now that the lockdown restrictions have been eased. Indeed, evidence from... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong TLTRO demand a good sign for bank lending Data published today show huge demand for the ECB’s targeted lending to commercial banks. So far, these operations and government loan guarantees have been successful in raising bank lending to the... 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The surge in nominal hourly labour costs growth in Q1 primarily reflects a collapse in hours worked as lockdowns restricted economic activity at the end of the quarter. This is likely to be repeated... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro-zone done enough to avoid a debt crisis? The EU’s moves towards an unprecedented joint fiscal stimulus and the ECB’s commitment to buy unlimited amounts of government debt have greatly reduced the risk of a euro-zone debt crisis in the... 15th June 2020 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Output down by 25%, TLTRO demand to be strong Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted by about a quarter between February and April, and that there has been only a small rebound since then. Next week, the ECB is... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The collapse in euro-zone industrial output in April will have been partly reversed in May and June, but the recovery will be much more gradual than the slump. 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances set to balloon TARGET2 imbalances are set to rise to record levels over the year ahead on the back of the ECB’s planned wave of asset purchases. While this may be dismissed by some as a benign and technical side... 11th June 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, breakdown) The sharp fall in GDP in Q1, confirmed by data released this morning, will pale in comparison to the contraction in Q2. We think it will then take several years for the economy to return to its pre... 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity still depressed, policymakers step up support Data published this week added to evidence that economic activity in the euro-zone is slowly resuming after a catastrophic April, but that it remains well below “normal” levels. Against this backdrop... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Policymakers getting their act together The latest high frequency data show that economic activity has picked up a bit in the past few weeks. Consumers have been returning to the shops and restaurants. But some sectors such as tourism and... 5th June 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB meets high expectations for now The ECB’s decision to increase the size and duration of the PEPP should sustain the positive sentiment towards the euro-zone in the near term and reinforce the sense that, for now, European... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) April’s euro-zone retail sales data confirm that household consumption growth took a beating at the start of the second quarter. There should be a sharp, though partial, rebound in May as lockdowns... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on recoveries Disruption to supply chains and depressed demand mean that euro-zone goods exports will slump this year, hitting open economies such as the Netherlands and Germany the most. But the hit to services... 3rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone and Germany Unemployment (Apr./May) The remarkably small increase in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of the government job subsidy schemes and an exodus from the labour force in Italy. We suspect that the unemployment... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
