Global Markets Update Joint rally in euro & BTPs may not be over yet Over the past few months, the euro and the BTP-Bund spread have moved closely together, with the euro strengthening as the BTP-Bund spread narrowed and vice versa. We think that this pattern will... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) The sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. But we suspect that activity will remain below... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery Fund another positive step The final agreement on the Recovery Fund was a compromise reached after four days and nights of acrimonious negotiations and is less generous than first proposed. Nonetheless, it marks a historic step... 21st July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May), Spain Ind. Prod. (May) Euro-zone retail sales rebounded sharply in May, but spending will still have collapsed in Q2 as other types of spending remained weak. Meanwhile, industrial production is recovering more slowly. 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The sharp increases in the euro-zone PMIs in June suggest that activity is bouncing back quite quickly, but remains far lower than before the crisis. The PMIs also point to continued declines in... 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) The trivial rise in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of short-time working schemes in protecting jobs but also an increase in “inactivity” as people have been unable to look for work... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) The increase in euro-zone headline inflation in June was entirely due to higher energy inflation, while the core rate edged down and looks likely to fall further over the rest of the year. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) The increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for June was the largest one-month rise on record. However, it was not as big as expected and leaves the index consistent with activity remaining... 29th June 2020 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect more upside for the euro & many E-Z assets While the euro and many euro-zone assets have rallied significantly over the past two months, we think that there is scope for them to make more headway this year. 26th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official data signal May rebound, June surveys upbeat This week the first official data for May confirmed the message from the high frequency data and the surveys that economic activity in the euro-zone is recovering fairly strongly. And the latest... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The current burst of bank lending suggests that governments’ loan guarantees and the ECB’s TLTROs are having the desired effects. Now that economies are re-opening, corporate revenues should begin to... 26th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account addresses German legal dispute The ECB has used the minutes of this month’s policy meeting to try to defuse the dispute in Germany over the legality of its asset purchase programmes. Helped by the Bundesbank, this should be enough... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s 2009 jobs miracle be repeated? Euro-zone countries seeking to avoid a surge in unemployment have sought to replicate Germany’s short-time working scheme that served it well during the global financial crisis. Germany’s experience... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The rise in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI in June confirms that economic output in the region is continuing to recover rapidly from April’s nadir as restrictions are progressively eased. But... 23rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (June) Consumer confidence in the euro-zone increased for the second consecutive month in June, adding to the evidence that household consumption rebounded sharply after the lockdowns were eased. 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
