Europe Economics Update How might the ECB “recalibrate” TLTROs? At its December meeting, the ECB is very likely to announce additional TLTRO operations and it may well make their terms even more favourable for banks. In this Update, we review the ways that the ECB... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to... 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP Inflation (Oct.) Headline inflation is likely to remain below zero for several more months and the COVID-19 restrictions in place throughout the euro-zone will keep core inflation close to zero too. 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone industrial output was largely due to the reversal of temporary effects in Italy, rather than a result of the second wave of COVID-19. We expect industrial production... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde points to PEPP and TLTRO as key policy tools In her opening remarks to today’s ECB Forum on Central Banking, President Christine Lagarde gave a clear message that encouraging news about a vaccine would not stop the Bank from loosening policy in... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another lockdown, another downturn With France and Germany announcing one-month national lockdowns this week, and other countries likely to follow suit, we expect the euro-zone economy to contract in the coming months. Moreover, the... 30th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), HICP (Oct.), Unemp. (Sep.) The post-lockdown rebound in euro-zone GDP was stronger than anticipated, which provides some hope that eventually things may get back to normal more rapidly than feared. But in the meantime, the... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB makes big promises for December The ECB left its policy settings unchanged at today’s meeting, but explicitly stated that it would “recalibrate” them in December. We think this will include an increase in the size and duration of... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Oct.) & Belgium GDP (Q3 2020) The fact that the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was unchanged in October was a bit surprising given the surge in virus cases and associated restrictions in recent weeks. With... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2020) The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey show that bank lending conditions tightened in Q3. And there is a growing risk that they tighten further in Q4, just as the economic activity has begun to slow again. 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy outlook warrants more stimulus The further surge in virus cases this week and the additional restrictions imposed strengthen our view that euro-zone GDP will at best stagnate over the next six months and the risks are tilted firmly... 23rd October 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October is consistent with our view that the second wave of COVID-19 infections, and the new raft of containment measures, will cause the economy... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Given the surge in virus cases and new restrictions over the past few weeks, it was no surprise that euro-zone consumer confidence deteriorated in October. With governments ramping up their... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB set to respond to second wave With the economy flagging again, policymakers at the ECB are likely to provide more support either at next week’s Governing Council meeting or, more likely, in December. We have pencilled in an... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
