Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC business and consumer survey did little to alter the picture of weak euro-zone GDP growth at the end of 2014 and suggested that renewed concerns about Greece and Russia offset the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in November, but fiscal consolidation is doing little to tackle debt ratios in some countries and they may only get worse if the euro-zone... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone deflation be good or bad? A bout of negative inflation could have some positive effects on the euro-zone economy by boosting real incomes and spending power. But the adverse effects on inflation expectations and peripheral... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why worry about deflation? The slump in the oil price means that headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the coming months in many advanced economies, just as it already has in the euro-zone. In general, deflation in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Unemployment (Nov.) December’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation into negative territory could herald the start of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation in the currency union, which may in turn threaten to re-ignite... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro weakness set to be sustained Recent strong downward pressure on the euro exchange rate might ease in the very near term. But further ahead, poor euro-zone growth, the implementation of quantitative easing and fears for the region... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are euro-zone property markets already looking weaker in 2015? Despite growing concerns about the euro-zone economic outlook, we expect rental growth to improve in 2015. Indeed, with the bund yield and the euro both falling further in the last month, there may be... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to December’s euro-zone PMI added to signs that the economy is barely expanding. And with the price indices highlighting the threat of deflation, the ECB remains under intense... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit dangers darken euro-zone outlook There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB finance a euro-zone investment fund? The idea that the ECB should finance a euro-zone investment fund instead of buying assets through a conventional quantitative easing programme has several potential benefits. But the scheme probably... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can Prague retail rental growth pick up steam? Given below-trend consumer spending growth in the Czech Republic until mid-2016, the short-term outlook is for only limited growth in retail rental values. While stronger growth will then push rents... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s the outlook for peripheral retail rental values? The outlook for consumption growth in the Southern peripheral euro-zone economies is fragile. Yet there seems potential for rents to rise, given that the current level offers decent value for... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
