Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone? According to the Sentix investor survey, Italy is now the most likely country to leave the euro-zone in the next 12 months. While we think that Italy remaining in the currency union is still the more... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank takes centre stage The most noteworthy market developments last month were prompted by expectations of further policy loosening from Sweden’s Riksbank, with the krona depreciating sharply last month as a result... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) September’s euro-zone unemployment data suggest that, while the labour market is still strengthening, it is doing so at a slow pace. And forward-looking indicators suggest that the labour market... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Production Indices (Sep.) and Services PMI (Oct.) September’s sharp rise in Swedish industrial production suggests that August’s large fall was due to one-off effects. Looking ahead, the rise in the services PMI supports the message from earlier... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth in Lisbon down but not out Prime retail rents in Lisbon have risen by more than one-third in the last six years, supported by policy reform, a rise in tourist numbers and an economic recovery. But, with slower economic growth... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) & Swiss Retail Sales (Sep.) October’s manufacturing PMIs generally painted a positive picture of economic growth.But the surveys’ price indices suggest that inflationary pressures vary across the region. 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Little risk to growth from Iceland’s election The next Icelandic government may be an unconventional one, but improvements to Iceland’s public finances and external position since the crisis mean that there is little risk to economic growth. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prel. Flash) & CPI (Oct.) The preliminary flash estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP supports the message from earlier country data that the pace of growth remains fairly slow. So it is no surprise that October’s inflation data show... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s rise in German HICP inflation to +0.7% suggests that euro-zone inflation in the same month rose to its highest level since April 2014. But in Germany at least, the rise reflected energy... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rally in Berlin office rents not over yet Prime office rents in the German capital, Berlin, have surged this year. With a positive economic environment and limited development pipeline, the rise in rental values has further to run. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports the message from the PMI that euro-zone growth accelerated towards the end of the year, albeit with continued divergence across... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer suggests that GDP growth could accelerate in the near term. But with the full effects of the franc’s strength yet to be felt and deflation risks... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.) Provisional Q3 GDP data from France and Spain support the message from the business surveys that euro-zone GDP continued to increase at a pretty slow pace. And there are clear signs that the French... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
