Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) Despite September’s fall in euro-zone industrial production, industry probably made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry is unlikely to prevent overall economic growth from... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Mixed quarter for the non-euro-zone markets A middling couple of quarters for economic growth help explain the somewhat weak performance of rental values in Q3. However, investment activity generally held up well and strong demand for prime... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Fall in yields regains momentum in Q3 The pace at which all-property euro-zone yields are falling picked up in Q3. The 11bp decline was larger than the 6bp fall in Q2 and broad-based across both sectors and markets. As a result, capital... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) In October, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation was unchanged at a joint 14-month low. We think that it will fall sharply next year, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate from 0.5%... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates We think that the sharp appreciation of the króna over recent months will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to cut its inflation forecasts next week. As a result, although the Bank has previously... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension Today’s minutes showed broad support for an extension of the Riksbank’s government bond purchase programme. Combined with the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s victory in the US, an extension of... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks The limited immediate reaction in European financial markets to Donald Trump’s victory appears to support our view that the outcome will have few direct economic implications. If anything, though, the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies? The importance of international trade to the Nordics and Switzerland, as well as the franc’s role as a safe haven, mean that the outcome of the US election is potentially important to the region. This... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s sharp drop in German industrial production partly reflected payback from a sharp rise last month, and production posted a solid gain in Q3 as a whole. Nonetheless, the data are... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How far can German property yields fall? Prime property yields in Germany continue to fall. Yet, despite being well below pre-financial crisis lows, commercial property still looks fairly valued relative to other assets. With the ultra-loose... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) As the European Commission (EC) undertakes its annual review of euro-zone member states’ budget submissions, yet more signs of fiscal slippage emerged in the South. Finances in Spain and Portugal... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.) The fading boost to consumers’ spending power from lower energy prices may bebehind September’s fall in euro-zone retail sales. As we have warned for sometime, consumer spending growth is set to... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s Swiss CPI data did little to ease fears that the economy may be experiencing a sustained bout of damaging deflation. This supports our view that additional monetary policy support will be... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property yields still have room for maneouvre Bond and equity dividend yields fell in Q3 meaning that, although property yields ticked down again, relative property valuations tended to improve over the quarter. 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
