Europe Commercial Property Outlook Largest yields falls now behind us, but still room to move lower Although government bond yields have ticked up recently, modest rates of GDP growth across the euro-zone and a low interest rate environment will continue to be positive for capital values over the... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher? The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate) The stagnation of Swiss GDP in Q3 demonstrates the negative impact that deflation and the strong franc have had on the economy. With a plethora of political risks inthe euro-zone set to keep the franc... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update External market drivers Trump domestic factors The election of Donald Trump in the US drove large moves in Nordic and Swiss financial markets last month, with currencies generally depreciating against the US dollar while long-term bond yields... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise Amid heightened political and economic uncertainty, President Mario Draghi seems set to announce another six-month extension to the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme this month. We expect purchases to... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Italian GDP (Q3) October’s euro-zone unemployment data show that the labour market recovery has regained some pace. But the rate of unemployment is still high and recent developments are consistent with pretty slow... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMIs suggest that Swiss and Swedish manufacturers are performing well, while their Norwegian and Danish counterparts are still lagging behind. 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets under-estimating political risks? Don’t draw too much comfort from the markets’ muted response to political risks in the euro-zone. It may not tell us much about the scale of the threats facing the currency union and it may not last. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small pick-up in euro-zone headline inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from announcing further policy stimulus next week. Indeed, underlying price pressures remain subdued and inflation... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German inflation data suggest that euro-zone inflation was unchanged at a low level. And while energy effects should cause headline inflation to rise sharply in the months ahead, the German... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate) Sweden’s decent economic expansion in Q3 masks a sharp slowdown in domestic demand growth. But with survey indicators pointing to a renewed acceleration in GDP growth in Q4, that slowdown looks set to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone money and credit data remain consistent with steady economic growth. But a renewed pick-up in money and lending growth will be needed before the ECB can feel comfortable about... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which euro-zone cities and sectors boast the strongest prospects? We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to stay weak, prompting interest rates to stay low and supporting valuations of prime property assets. In this environment, property yields can continue... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned by the rise in Italian bond yields? Italian government bond yields have almost doubled over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, we do not see this as a reason for property investors to panic and expect prime Italian property yields to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
