Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise of populist parties unlikely to end austerity Syriza’s victory in the Greek general election may increase the influence of anti-austerity parties elsewhere in the euro-zone, most notably Podemos in Spain. But resistance from Germany seems set to... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE keep the euro under pressure? While the onset of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) is likely to weigh on the euro in time, exchange rates are two sides of a coin, so the fate of the currency will also depend on the prospects for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that fears about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy have so far been offset by the perceived benefits of a weaker euro and ECB... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Syriza victory threatens to reignite crisis Syriza’s resounding victory in the Greek general election looks set to result in a protracted period of heightened uncertainty over Greece’s future inside the euro-zone and could threaten to reignite... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to look for in Sunday’s Greek election In this Update, we outline some of the key points to look for in this Sunday’s crucial Greek election. While much is likely to depend on coalition negotiations early next week, we suspect that the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Two cheers for the ECB The ECB’s Governing Council deserves credit for meeting the demandingly high level of expectations with last week’s announcement of a quantitative easing programme worth at least €1trn. The size and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand to push the price of cocoa lower Falling cocoa grindings in Europe, North America and Asia suggest that the world has lost some of its sweet tooth. We expect weaker demand and ample supply to push the price of cocoa lower. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB QE provides modest bump to markets The ECB’s larger-than-expected quantitative easing programme has led to a rally in Central European equities and currencies, although this hasn’t been substantial. Meanwhile, the yields on Ukrainian... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Greece’s election be more important for EZ bonds than QE? While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and Euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan) The flash PMIs for China, the euro-zone and Japan all rose in January. Admittedly, the increases were small, but signs of stronger domestic growth in China and a stabilisation in the euro-zone economy... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that growth has remained very slow at the start of this year, confirming that the ECB’s latest policy support is sorely needed. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update QE meets expectations, but won’t work miracles The ECB’s much-anticipated quantitative easing programme appears to have met or even exceeded expectations in terms of size and shape. But we remain sceptical that it will revive the euro-zone economy... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does QE in the euro-zone mean for commodities? The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update ECB QE and what it means for emerging markets The programme of asset purchases announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier today was larger than had been expected only a few days ago, but fears that it could fuel destabilising inflows to... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
