Europe Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the euro-zone surveys too optimistic? The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falling prime yields drive stronger demand for secondary property? We expect strong competition for prime assets to push yields lower again in 2016. With prime income yields at such low levels, this is likely to result in further growth in the demand for secondary... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s fall in euro-zone industrial production added to evidence that the economy performed worse in Q4 than the surveys have implied and perhaps even failed to match Q3’s modest 0.3% expansion. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although France’s headline inflation rate edged up in December, the big picture is that price pressures in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy remain very weak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial rents in Milan set for steady growth The high level of industrial take-up in Italy over the past two years demonstrates the strong effect that e-commerce has had on occupier demand. With the Italian economy now on a positive, albeit... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European investment activity likely to rise again in 2016 European commercial property investment is likely to have reached a new peak in 2015. But, we believe there are good grounds for expecting further growth in 2016 as new capital sources and other... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are euro-zone consumers running out of steam? Perhaps the most notable positive surprise in the euro-zone last year was the strength of household spending. Spending looks likely to have expanded by 1.5% or more in 2015. This would be the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s disappointingly weak German and French industrial production figures provided further evidence that the hard data on the euro-zone economy is failing to live up to the more optimistic... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
