Europe Economics Update Without major debt relief, a Greek deal won’t end crisis While a deal between Greece and its creditors may finally emerge in the next few days, it still looks unlikely to include the substantial debt relief needed to end the crisis and eliminate the risk of... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) Although the Ifo survey points to an acceleration in Germany’s economy in Q2, its fall in June suggests that Greece’s crisis is starting to weigh on sentiment there. 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit might be unavoidable, but it need not be a crisis In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize for our submission on how the exit from the eurozone of a small country like Greece might best be managed. Given the still significant risk that... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Amid the turmoil in Greece, June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI is encouraging. But the survey also suggests that the euro-zone recovery did not pick up much steam in Q2 and that there are clear risks to... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Early business survey evidence for June supports our relatively positive view on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, especially metals. The latest euro-zone data are encouraging too, although we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls likely, but they can’t prevent Grexit Accelerating deposit outflows from Greek banks and the ECB’s reluctance to fill the gap with further emergency loans have increased the likelihood that capital controls are imminent. We discuss the... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Grexit” mean for commodities? A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The end is (really) near The failure to reach a deal at last week’s Eurogroup meeting and the rapid outflow of deposits from Greek banks suggest that a near-term euro-zone exit may now be more likely than not. We do not buy... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s external adjustment has further to run While Spanish exports continue to perform well, imports are also surging as domestic demand recovers. Without further competitiveness gains, Spain’s current account risks falling back into deficit. 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss property to produce the lowest total returns in next five years Weak rental value growth and limited inward yield shift will restrict capital value growth in Switzerland. As a result, when combined with a low income yield, over the next five years Swiss property... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would euro-zone equities fare after a “Grexit”? If Greece does default on her sovereign debt, the euro-zone stock market will probably fall further, especially if this is swiftly followed by her abandoning the euro. But even in the event of a “... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
