Europe Economics Weekly Has the euro fallen far enough? The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update New retail supply will dampen rental growth in the Polish regions Polish retail sales growth will continue to improve as labour market conditions strengthen. While this will support further retailer expansion, the volume of shopping centre space being developed and... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest euro-zone consumer prices and unemployment figures gave the ECB yet another nudge to take urgent further action to revive the recovery and tackle the threat of deflation. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3) The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3 14) The rise in Swedish GDP in Q3 provides further evidence of a steady recovery and will help to alleviate fears of a Japanese-style bout of deflation and stagnation. But growth is not strong enough for... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE’s coming, probably in January It seems clear that the ECB will soon embark on a full-blown quantitative easing programme incorporating sovereign debt purchases. The key questions now are when and how big? While we think that the... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the sluggish nature of the recovery in the region’s banking sector and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to provide further stimulus. 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer survey did nothing to relieve the pressure on the European Central Bank to provide more policy support to the euro-zone economy in the form of a full-blown... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus ECB on hold: will commercial property in the periphery outperform? A weak economic outlook for the euro-zone means that we do not expect particularly strong rental growth in the coming years. But, with interest rates on hold and bond yields expected to stay low... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to core euro-zone bond yields? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme will probably not be decisive enough to prompt a rise in inflation expectations like that which lifted US Treasury yields during the Fed’s bouts of QE... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Bunds the new JGBs? While we are still not convinced that the euro-zone is the new Japan, despite the many similarities in their economic predicaments, we are increasingly of the view that the 10-year Bund yield will... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika call to pay taxes faster may hurt Greek recovery The Greek Government does not appear to have been too rattled by last month’s market turmoil, sticking to its budget plan despite opposition from the Troika. But it may come under pressure to seek... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & French Business Confidence (Nov.) The second release of Q3 German GDP confirmed that the economy expanded by a meagre 0.1%. The breakdown offered some hope, with consumer spending and exports rising strongly, but surveys suggest that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s rise in the German Ifo survey is a relief after the fall in the PMI and leaves the key surveys painting a somewhat mixed picture. But both point to slow growth at best, which will do little... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB divisions point to half-hearted QE The objections of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann to the prospect of an ECB quantitative easing programme including government bond purchases are unlikely to prevent such a programme being... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
