Europe Economics Update How is Ireland’s economy holding up after the Brexit vote? The early signs are that while the euro-zone economy has been largely unharmed by the UK’s vote for Brexit, the Irish economy, which has particularly strong trade links with the UK, has taken a hit... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No sign of an end to political uncertainty in Spain With no sign of a government, a third Spanish election is possible. Even if one is avoided, Catalonia’s bid for independence means that political uncertainty will continue to darken Spain’s prospects... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (July) Public finances improved across the region in Q1, and timelier central government data suggest that the peripheral countries continued to perform well in Q2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Spain avoided... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July) June’s stagnation of euro-zone retail sales suggest that consumer spending ended Q2 on a weak note. And despite a small upward revision from the flash release, July’s Composite PMI points to subdued... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices shrug off France’s wider economic woes French GDP growth slowed markedly in Q2 and is set to be anaemic over the next few years. But, H1 2016 has seen a surge in office investment activity in La Défense, reflecting growing confidence in... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest Sweden’s weak Q2 GDP growth rate is at odds with both the monthly economic data and the positive tone of recent surveys. As such, we suspect a decent rebound is on the cards for Q3. 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest Sweden’s weak Q2 GDP growth rate is at odds with both the monthly economic data and the positive tone of recent surveys. As such, we suspect a decent rebound is on the cards for Q3. 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France’s Q2 stagnation likely to be more than a one-off While France’s stagnation in the second quarter was partly down to temporary factors, we doubt that there will be a strong rebound in Q3. Indeed, we think that the underlying pace of growth has now... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy and Ireland the losers from bank stress test The latest EU bank stress tests confirm that, on the whole, the region’s banks are in a much healthier position than a few years ago. However, there are still significant problems in some countries’... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slower euro-zone GDP growth a sign of things to come We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is a sign of things to come. While the UK’s vote to leave the EU won’t be a major drag on the euro-zone, we expect growth to slow further as... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin’s office pipeline unlikely to lead to oversupply After several years of virtually no development, Dublin office space is set to rise by around 12% of current stock over the next few years. However, in the absence of a sharp slowdown in occupier... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI (July) The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economy slowed in Q2. We think that this slowdown in growth is a sign of things to come. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate) The first estimate of Sweden’s GDP in Q2 was much weaker than expected, and the release also revealed a downward revision to growth in what was an already-soft Q1. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat are Italy’s banks? Italian banks are in trouble and there are no quick fixes for their problems. We think that policymakers will provide support to lenders this year, but this is unlikely to resolve banks’ underlying... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s rise in German inflation further into positive territory is likely to be followed by continued increases in the coming months. But even in Germany, we do not think that inflation is on track to... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that businesses and consumers have so far largely shrugged off the negative economic implications of the UK’s Brexit vote. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
