Europe Commercial Property Update Mixed effect of Brexit on CEE property markets As in core Europe, bond yields in the CEE region have fallen indiscriminately in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. This will mean that, whilst economic growth will be a touch weaker, in the long-run... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) & Final CPI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports will have cushioned the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. Further ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year, as slower... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Brexit vote adds to downside risks The UK’s vote to leave the EU has weakened the outlook for the European Economy. Admittedly, the financial market reaction has been muted and we think that the UK will ultimately fare well outside the... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may bide its time, but action needed very soon The European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from loosening policy this month following the Bank of England’s inaction. But the Brexit vote has increased what were already significant downside risks to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade tariffs pose limited threat to euro-zone exports With the exception of the automobile and agricultural industries, WTO tariffs are low enough to imply that even if no trade deal is reached, Brexit will do little direct damage to euro-zone exporters... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weakening Italian economy to hit office rental growth Office rental growth in Italy is set to be negatively affected by a slowdown in the Italian economy, including weaker employment growth. And coupled with political uncertainty, the office market looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s fall in euro-zone industrial production reversed almost all of April’s strong gain and suggests that industry will probably detract from euro-zone GDP growth in Q2. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) Looking through the massive distortions in the Irish GDP data, today’s Q1 release suggests that the economy has continued to perform well. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June) Swedish inflation hit a four-year high in June, but it is still low. So although domestic price pressures are rising, the Riksbank may still have to take further policy action. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (June 16) The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The Netherlands will be hit harder than most by Brexit The Dutch economy is more vulnerable than most to a downturn in the UK. In turn, the negative labour market impact could boost support for eurosceptic parties ahead of next year’s elections. 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis? There is no easy solution to the euro-zone’s banking problems, but the risks of doing nothing are too large for policymakers to simply sit on their hands. We think that policymakers will find a way to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (May) May’s decline in French industrial production only partly reversed April’s gain but combined with falls elsewhere leaves euro-zone industry looking weak. And Germany’s trade balance fell from its... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic transaction levels on course to beat 2015 After a solid start to the year, Nordic transaction volumes now need only to equal those from the same period last year to set a new annual record. With concerns over UK pricing in the wake of the... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp fall in German industrial production adds to the evidence that GDPgrowth in the region’s largest economy slowed sharply in Q2. And the recoverylooks likely to ease further in the second... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
