Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will labour reforms get France working again? France’s Government has finally started to tackle the country’s weak labour market. But we are sceptical that the reforms so far will be sufficient and think that more ambitious measures will be... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug) & GDP Breakdown (Q2) August’s German Ifo survey suggested that GDP growth had continued to accelerate in Q3. But expectations for the future were weakening even before the latest rise in the euro, suggesting that growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a relief after last month’s fall and signs of a slowdown in other indicators. But it still points to modest growth that will do little to erode the... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2 15) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout approved, but implementation doubtful The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
