Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone holding back recovery (again) Global growth is likely to accelerate slightly next year but to remain well below its pre-crisis average. Strong recoveries in the US and UK will be offset by near-stagnation in the eurozone and Japan... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will lower oil prices have on Norway’s property markets? With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal slippage could promote more pragmatic policy The French Government’s submission today of a budget that flouts the European Commission’s fiscal rules will be a key test of EU authorities’ resolve. We expect a compromise to be reached that forces... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Peripheral industrial property values look set to outperform In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Adverse market reaction hits Greek bail-out exit hopes The adverse market reaction to the Greek Government’s plans to exit its IMF bail-out early has underlined the fragility of market sentiment towards the country and presumably made it very unlikely... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Treasury and Bund yields continue to diverge? Although the spread between the yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds is already close to its largest since the start of European Monetary Union, we see little reason why it should not... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) & German ZEW (Oct.) August’s fall in euro-zone industrial production and the sharp drop in German ZEW investor sentiment in October add to the risk that the single currency area may be entering its third recession in six... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can US and euro-zone inflation really diverge? It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the euro-zone drag the UK into the doldrums? Concerns that the euro-zone’s faltering recovery will drag the UK’s own into the doldrums appear somewhat overblown. Past experience shows that the UK economy has been able to outperform the euro-zone... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany needs more stimulus for its own sake Recent renewed calls for the German Government to take advantage of its fiscal room for manoeuvre in order to stimulate its economy have centred on the potentially beneficial effects on its weaker... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for prime office yields in Switzerland? Despite a weak outlook for the occupier markets, we expect Swiss prime office yields to mark time at their current levels for at least another 12 to 18 months as bond yields stay close to historic... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is now the time to be buying Spanish industrial assets? Gradually improving economic growth and tightening supply in prime locations is set to produce rental growth in the next 12 months. With industrial yields elevated relative to both office yields and... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s big drop in industrial production all but confirmed that German industry is back in recession and underlined the need for both the ECB and the German Government to give the euro-zone’s... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone ever escape abnormality? Don’t be fooled by the apparent normalisation of the euro-zone’s financial markets. Conditions in the currency union’s economy are still a very long way from normal. 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB already doing QE? The ECB confirmed last week that it will start to buy assets outright later this month and that the purchases will not be sterilised. But technically, this probably still amounts to credit easing... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
