Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New Finnish coalition’s austerity to drag on growth The new coalition government is likely to impose significant budget cuts that would drag on Finland’s already ailing economy. But there are reasons to think that fiscal consolidation might be less of... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could a debt default revive the Greek economy? While euro-zone officials appear increasingly resigned to some form of Greek sovereign debt default, we doubt that this alone would revive the economy and secure the country’s membership of the euro. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production (Mar.) Although March’s French industrial production figures were a little disappointing, the sector has fared well at the start of 2015 and appears to have made a decent contribution to GDP growth in the... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Zurich and Geneva office rental values set for further falls The negative effects of the Swiss franc appreciation on economic growth and employment suggest that the recent stabilisation of Geneva and Zurich office rents is unlikely to last. Rather, with vacancy... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone outperformance will be short-lived The euro-zone economy looks likely to have outgrown both those of the US and UK in the first quarter of the year, for the first time since Q1 2011. But the outperformance looks set to be short-lived... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggested that overall household spending registered a fairly strong increase in Q1. But the decline in April’s composite PMI implied that the economy might have... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that only Italy and Ireland made any improvement in their budgetary positions in Q1. And the latest data from Greece are far from encouraging. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Deflation dangers have not yet lifted April’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation to zero left the latest bout of falling prices shorter, at four months, than that seen back in 2009. But with fundamental forces still bearing down on inflation... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Ireland’s economic recovery a statistical illusion? The strength of Ireland’s recovery has been overstated due to a number of statistical distortions to GDP. But the economy does still seem to be on the mend. And the conditions are in place for Ireland... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) While the recent bout of falling prices in the euro-zone ended in April, the threat of deflation in the currency union has certainly not lifted altogether. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q1 est.) & CPI (April) While Spain’s economic recovery gathered further pace in the first quarter, the large amount of spare capacity left in the economy is sustaining deflationary pressures. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank increases stimulus to battle deflation Sweden’s Riksbank stepped up its fight against deflation by more than doubling the size of its government bond purchase programme and reiterating its willingness to make monetary policy even more... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Increased sentiment set to support further property investment growth Commercial property investment recorded another strong performance in Q1. In annual terms, impressive rises in Belgium, Italy and Spain offset declines in a number of other markets. Encouragingly, the... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s slightly bigger-than-expected rise in German HICP inflation will reinforce hopes that recent price declines were a temporary phenomenon that will have positive effects on the economy. But with... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French business surveys point to weak economic recovery France’s economic outlook appears particularly uncertain at the moment, with the business surveys painting a mixed picture. But even the most positive of these surveys still points to fairly sluggish... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
