Europe Economics Update Can Greece default and stay in the euro? Suggestions that Greece can default but remain inside the euro-zone overlook the fact that Greece needs both a very large debt write-down and a more competitive currency. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Low vacancy rates set to support office rental growth in Germany Vacancy rates across Germany have edged lower over the past year. Consistent with that, rental values have also been moving up. Given that vacancy rates are now generally below their pre-crisis... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that fears over Greece are starting to dent confidence in the German economic recovery. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improving consumer fundamentals positive for CE retail property The nascent recovery in consumer spending in Central Europe is expected to strengthen. Retail property in the region will benefit from improving occupier demand, although we expect the prime end of... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What is the relative valuation of euro-zone equities? The stock market in the euro-zone is much more attractively valued than in the US based on a comparison of cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratios. However, its valuation is much less... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis may finally be coming to a head The Greek crisis has reached a new crunch point amid signs that the Eurogroup will not grant desperately needed financial aid after next week’s meeting. Greece might resort to IOUs and/or capital... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Are Dutch consumers now ready to spend? Dutch consumers have finally started to open their wallets, prompting hopes of a consumer-led economic revival. But even if renewed falls in household spending look unlikely, the combination of the... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will implement QE in full and may need to do more ECB President Mario Draghi sent a clear signal today that the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic outlook would not result in an early termination of the quantitative easing programme that... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will an Italian economic recovery boost commercial property in 2015? Despite recent positive economic data, the Italian economy is unlikely to rebound strongly this year. Nevertheless, a loosening of credit standards and the fact that real estate loans are now being... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) February’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro is still only providing a small boost to the region’s exports. 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar. 15) Sweden’s headline inflation rate picked up further in March. But with inflation likely to remain well below target and the underlying rate unchanged, we continue to think that the Riksbank will cut... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French tax breaks seem unlikely to revive investment Investment has been the weakest link in France’s feeble economic recovery so far. But it is not clear that the French Government’s latest plans will alter this picture dramatically. For that, a... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production suggested that industry is starting to feel the benefits of a weaker euro and a lower oil price. 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Sweden’s headline inflation rate picked up further in March. But with inflation likely to remain well below target and the underlying rate unchanged, we continue to think that the Riksbank will cut... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
