UK Economics Update Brexit would allow a more sensible migration policy It is generally assumed that a UK exit from the EU would lead to a sharp drop in migration, reducing the pool of labour and undermining economic growth. However, a Brexit could lead to a more sensible... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s drop in inflation back below zero for the first time since January highlights that price pressures are very subdued and will add to pressure on the ECB to increase its policy support. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s next Government will have its work cut out This weekend’s general election in Portugal looks set to be a close contest with a minority government currently appearing the most likely outcome. But whichever party ends up on top, it faces an... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. But growth was still fairly slow and we think that the ECB will need to increase its stimulus... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rising Italian confidence not enough to secure recovery The high level of consumer and business confidence in September added to the recent run of positive data coming from Italy. But strong confidence alone will not be enough to secure a sustained... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What effect could the Volkswagen scandal have on European property? The cross-border nature of automotive supply chains means that it is not just Germany that may be affected by the Volkswagen scandal. The Czech Republic also looks exposed. While automotive related... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch housing recovery built on solid foundations The gradual recovery in the Dutch housing market looks set to continue, supported by rising realdisposable incomes, mortgage lending growth and government policy. This bodes well for bothhousehold... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the VW scandal put the brakes on German growth? The news last week that Volkswagen had cheated emissions tests prompted speculation that “Made in Germany” branding had been dealt a blow that could seriously jeopardize the economy’s prospects. Given... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued sluggish growth, adding to the evidence that more monetary stimulus from the ECB isnecessary. The run on Greek banks seems to have... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portuguese election concerns unlikely to dampen retail prospects Political factors pose less risk to the economic outlook in Portugal than in Spain. Nevertheless, the underlying economic outlook for Portugal is weaker, which will weigh on occupier demand in Lisbon... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The small rise in the German Ifo index in September came as a modestly pleasant surprise in light of the recent softening in some other business surveys. But the China slowdown and VW scandal present... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How does Italian private debt compare to public debt Italy’s public debt load is worryingly high, but private sector debt is much less of a concern. This provides some grounds for optimism that a recovery in the private sector which increases the size... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen retail rents buoyed by the tourist dollar The combination of strong growth in tourism and rapid population growth has driven up retail rental values in the Danish capital. We believe these factors will support further strong demand for prime... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) Today’s weak manufacturing PMI reading from China has contributed to the negative sentiment towards commodities, but the data are not as disastrous as some of the headlines have implied. The euro-zone... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
