Europe Commercial Property Update Are opportunistic investors calling time on the cycle? European investment activity is likely to have risen again in Q2. But, while retail funds are competing aggressively for core assets, opportunistic investors appear to be rotating out of low-yielding... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal shackles loosen but little stimulus in sight Euro-zone member states appear to have put their public finances largely in order now, with the European Commission deeming this week that even Greece has made sufficient progress to become compliant... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) The fall in Ireland’s GDP in Q1 is not a major concern. The data are notoriously unreliable as a measure of underlying activity, and other indicators suggest that the economy is performing well. We... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue hinting at 2018 taper We expect the ECB to renew its hints of future QE tapering at its forthcoming meeting, despite the modest tightening of financial market conditions that such hints have caused already. We still see... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production left it at its highest level since September 2008 and bodes very well for GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could households withstand higher interest rates? Household debt has remained elevated in the euro-zone as a whole, but there has been significant deleveraging in the countries that needed it most. Given positive trends in the labour market, we... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun) Headline inflation in Norway slowed in June, and we think that it will fall further. Over the next few years, it is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target, so we think that interest rate... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain show that output rose sharply across the board. This suggests that overall economic growth in the euro-zone accelerated further in Q2... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How important is the EU-Japan trade deal? The EU-Japan trade deal is unlikely to have a major impact on euro-zone GDP growth. In the context of US President Trump’s protectionist leanings and the UK’s impending exit from the EU, the deal is a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in core inflation confined to Germany While euro-zone headline CPI inflation fell to 1.3% in June, the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose from 0.9% to 1.1%. This left it above the 0.8% average recorded... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves unlikely to prompt ECB to delay QE tapering The euro’s rise has not yet been sharp enough to cause a significant tightening of monetary conditions and we doubt that it will dissuade the ECB from tapering QE next year. But a further appreciation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank drops easing bias from forward guidance By indicating that it no longer expects to cut interest rates, the Riksbank has taken a small step toward monetary policy normalisation. While the Bank indicated that it will continue to guard against... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Nordic and Swiss bond yields keep rising? Government bond yields in the Nordic and Swiss economies have risen recently, and for the most part we expect this to continue. Yields in Sweden are likely to rise the furthest, while those in... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Final Manuf. PMI (Jun.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged in May, survey indicators point to strong employment gains ahead. Nevertheless, the high degree of slack in some countries suggests that it will be... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
