Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s data show that euro-zone retail sales were coming off the boil even before many non-essential retailers were forced to shut up shop. Online spending will probably pick up again, but by... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdowns to keep inflation low The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss recovery at risk of reversal A continued surge in virus cases has forced Swiss and Nordic governments to tighten restrictions this week and there is a risk that Switzerland follows in France and Germany’s footsteps and imposes a... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q3 2020) The massive increase in GDP in Q3 is of no comfort to French policymakers or households, who are now contending with a second national lockdown. Indeed, we expect GDP to fall by 2.5% q/q or so in Q4. 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak investment to drag into 2021 European investment activity is likely to remain subdued into 2021, as pricing has been slow to adjust and investors continue to push back investment decisions in the current uncertain environment. 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly From bad to worse in Switz; High noon in Sweden The surge in virus cases in Switzerland means that the government is all but certain to tighten restrictions, probably severely, next week. While the strong finish to Q3 provides a solid platform for... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Not immune, but comparatively resilient Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging... 20th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Second wave blows recovery off course The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think... 19th October 2020 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surging virus cases cast a shadow over Switzerland The appreciation of the Swiss franc to a three-month high against the euro this week opens the door to renewed FX interventions by the SNB. However, if appetite for risk improves next year, as we... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices offer cold comfort Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Imminent rise in bankruptcies to weigh on values Government action has meant corporate bankruptcies have remained low, which has prevented a sharp rise in tenancy defaults and has supported income security on leases. But, as this support is... 15th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave forcing more restrictions With the virus spreading rapidly, governments are ramping up their containment measures. The new restrictions will be more targeted, regional and time-specific than in the first wave, but they are... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Recoveries slowing, but Nordics are still well placed The slowdown in the pace of monthly GDP growth in Norway in August was driven in large part by a fall in consumer spending. The post-lockdown spending splurge on goods appears to have peaked before... 13th October 2020 · 5 mins read
