Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) Despite October’s increase in CPIF inflation, underlying inflation in Sweden remains below target and serves as proof that the economy is not ready for the Riksbank’s planned rate hike in December... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to stagnation in Italy The latest activity and confidence indicators point to continued near-stagnation in the Italian economy. While household consumption is likely to keep growing, prospects for investment and exports are... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q3) This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy is faring much better than its Nordic peers. The economy looks set to lose some pace in the coming months but we do not... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish political impasse to drag on The prospect of further political stalemate in Spain, following yesterday’s inconclusive election result, does not alter the short-term economic outlook. But it does mean that there is little chance... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Breman unlikely to rock the boat at the Riksbank The forthcoming addition of Anna Bremen to the Riksbank’s Executive Board is unlikely to significantly affect the balance among the Bank’s policymakers. While we think that they will follow through on... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EC growth forecasts still too optimistic Regardless of the outcome of Spain’s latest general election on Sunday, we think its economy is set to slow. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy should have narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q3 (data... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sept.) The decline in industrial production in September confirms that German manufacturers are still firmly in a recession. We expect this to continue well into next year, causing the economy as a whole to... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook remains bleak Although the euro-zone economy grew by more than expected in Q3, helped by solid growth in France and Spain, the overall picture remains fairly gloomy. Euro-zone GDP expanded by only 0.2% q/q, and... 6th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest household consumption made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, the upward revision to October’s euro-zone Composite PMI still leaves... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economy to slow further after election Spain’s fourth general election in as many years looks likely to result in further political stasis, but we doubt that this will have a detrimental effect on the economy. Nevertheless, weaker consumer... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic offices to outperform despite lower withdrawals Office-to-residential conversions in the Nordic capitals have started to lose their appeal given the pick-up in office capital values and softening in house prices. However, we don’t think that this... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to loosen policy again next year The return of deflation to Switzerland in October lends support to our dovish view that the SNB will loosen policy further next year. Next week, we expect the release of the services PMI from Sweden... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghila’s exit won’t ease the pain for German savers The Q3 GDP data released this week were better than expected. But given that the timelier surveys for the start of Q4 have continued to deteriorate, the outlook still seems pretty bleak. We expect Ms... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The confirmation this morning that Swiss inflation fell back into negative territory in October for the first time since November 2016 will reignite deflationary fears at the SNB and strengthen its... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3) & Unemployment (Sep.), HICP (Oct.) Italy’s economy eked out only a small expansion in Q3, and it looks set to continue performing very poorly over the coming years. We think that it will fail to grow at all in 2020. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
