Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office yields still obeying Newton’s First Law Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Falling bond yields buoy property valuations A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the... 23rd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB preparing for action and perhaps a new target The account of the ECB Governing Council’s July meeting, published this week, confirmed that policymakers are planning to loosen policy in September. Meanwhile, the flash PMIs for August suggested... 23rd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The trivial increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August still leaves it consistent with feeble GDP growth this quarter and won’t put the ECB off easing policy next month. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown feeding into slower rental growth Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What are yield curves telling us in the euro-zone? The steepness of the yield curve in Germany has historically been a poor leading indicator of recessions. But that is cold comfort given the contraction in the economy in Q2 and the further weakness... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What would early elections mean for Italy? Italy now looks set for an early election. Opinion polls suggest that a this would deliver a right-wing coalition, led by the League, which we suspect would be even more likely to clash with the EU... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk to the euro-zone from the trade war is rising The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One more hike by the Norges Bank; SNB to cut further Investors have moved in line with our previously uber-dovish forecasts for the SNB and the Riksbank in recent months. Meanwhile, although further tightening is in the pipeline in Norway, investors are... 8th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness to continue to weigh on equities The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is... 7th August 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update H1 data point to stronger German office rental growth The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to remain slow in Q3 Another set of weak data published this week is consistent with the ECB loosening policy further fairly soon. We think the Bank is most likely to announce a rate cut next month and a fresh round of QE... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) The jump in retail sales in June follows a fairly sharp contraction in May and feeble growth in April, and means that retail sales growth slowed in Q2 overall. With the boost from falling inflation... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMI (July) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation in July, and signs of a deepening downturn in the industrial sector, will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist the rising franc. There is a growing... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment slowing, but no need to panic yet Commercial property investment activity looks likely to drop back slightly from the highs seen last year. But, rather than pointing to a downturn in pricing, we believe that this reflects investors re... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
