Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The final estimate of December’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy finished the year on a high note, but inflationary pressures are building only slowly. 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) Recent fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries in the year to November. While Ireland and Portugal are on course to outperform their 2017 state budget balance... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key views for how 2018 will shape up After three consecutive years of mostly yield-driven double-digit capital growth, the outlook for European commercial property in 2018 is less positive – we believe that the prime market has now... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A vintage year, but is the best yet to come? The euro-zone economy performed better in 2017 than we and most forecasters had anticipated at the year’s outset. Investment growth picked up despite intense political uncertainty. And while a rise in... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies weaken despite hawkish central banks The Swedish and Norwegian central banks delivered fairly hawkish assessments of the outlook for monetary policy this month, but that did not stop their currencies from depreciating. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal’s bonds outperform Italy’s again in 2018? Government bond yields in Portugal started 2017 almost twice as high as those in Italy, but look set to end the year at around the same level. While we think that yields will edge up across the region... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Who gains most from ECB corporate bond purchases? At this week’s press conference, Mario Draghi confirmed that the ECB’s corporate bond purchases will continue in “sizeable” quantities next year. The exact amount that it intends to buy is unclear... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2018 to be the last year of yield falls Solid economic growth prospects in most of Europe bode well for occupier demand and prime rents in the next few years. However, better growth is likely to be a double-edged sword for commercial... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Period of strong capital value growth nearing an end Against a backdrop of solid economic growth, the outlook for occupier demand and rental growth is encouraging. But with prime property yields close to finding a floor, and tighter monetary policy on... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Denmark weak in Q3, Sweden powered ahead The Nordic and Swiss Q3 GDP data revealed large differences between the best and worst performing economies. A quarterly contraction of 0.6% meant that Denmark underperformed the rest of the pack by a... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will housing bubbles prompt early rate hikes? Macro-prudential policies to cool the housing markets in Switzerland and Norway will allow their central banks to keep monetary policy loose, boosting inflation from its current low rates. By contrast... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be concerned about German house prices? The recent strength of German house price inflation is a justifiable response to increased urbanisation and a shift towards home ownership there. Given that mortgage lending growth remains moderate... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European Monetary Fund is no silver bullet The European Commission’s (EC) latest proposals for euro-zone reform and integration centred on the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The EC plans... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Underlying inflationary pressures remain uneven Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s drop in German industrial production largely reflected the timing of holidays – high levels of industrial orders and business confidence point to a renewed acceleration to come. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Reviewing 2017 and looking ahead to 2018 In this Watch, we evaluate the performance of Nordic and Swiss economies in 2017 and set out our key calls for next year. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
