Global Economics Update Credit conditions to stay loose even as QE is scaled back Monetary conditions remain highly supportive of economic activity, and should continue to be so in the years ahead. While we expect the Fed to begin winding down its balance sheet in Q4 and the ECB to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vienna retail rents could fall further in real terms Competition from prime shopping centres and questions about affordability mean that prime high street rents in Vienna will struggle to keep pace with inflation over the coming years, leading to... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Steady first half cloaks the positive truth for Paris offices Office space in Paris’ CBD is in short supply and tenants are having to compete for larger floorplates. This will push prime rental values up at above-inflation rates of 3% and 4% respectively in 2018... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors focus on prime property in Italy With better rental growth prospects for prime property in Italy, compared to secondary, we think that a continued focus by investors on prime assets will see yields edge down over the next 18 months. 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The euro-zone’s efforts to put its public finances in order continued in Q1, with the region’s budget deficit shrinking to its lowest level since mid-2007. And timelier central government fiscal data... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Preliminary Flash) Euro-zone GDP in the first half of the year was a little weaker than expected. But the Q2 outturn may yet be revised up, and with surveys pointing to continued fairly strong growth at the start of Q3... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What if the euro keeps on rising? This week, the euro reached its highest level against the US dollar since before QE began. It would probably take a much larger appreciation to knock the economic recovery completely off course. But a... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jul.) July’s EC survey points to a sharp acceleration in euro-zone GDP growth. But we doubt that the economy will perform quite as well as the survey suggests. And with inflation expectations low, tighter... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Logicor sale distorts strength of Q2 European investment The 15% annual rise in European (ex. UK) Q2 investment was wholly dependent on the logistics sector. Indeed, activity in the office and retail sectors fell. But with investors in a buoyant mood, 2017... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone money and credit data point to downside risks to growth. But firms and consumers have scope to fund extra spending without borrowing, and with confidence high, we remain optimistic... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brussels prime office rental prospects looking brighter Very low Grade A vacancy and steady net absorption are likely to see Brussels rental growth forecasts for this year blown out of the water. We think rents could climb by 12% and a further 3% in 2018. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing growth in advanced economies started Q3 on a strong note. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is behind rising German industrial take-up? Perhaps against the prevailing perception, rather than retail, it has been the manufacturing sector that has been a key driver of rising industrial demand in Germany over recent years. With a... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased In our last Global Policy Watch, published in April, we argued that aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies was likely to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. Since then, the chances... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone peripheral bonds shrug off ECB tapering? Government bond yields have risen recently by more in Germany than in some “peripheral” countries of the euro-zone. This has happened even though the sell-off in bonds has been caused by concerns that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are opportunistic investors calling time on the cycle? European investment activity is likely to have risen again in Q2. But, while retail funds are competing aggressively for core assets, opportunistic investors appear to be rotating out of low-yielding... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
