Energy Update A flood of LNG to keep a lid on EU natural gas prices In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the... 1st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB ready to intervene; Sweden’s GDP to disappoint While the fall in the Swiss franc after the ECB meeting this week will have calmed some nerves at the SNB, we think that the currency will rise further over the next six months and it is a question of... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do in September? Following Thursday’s press conference, some analysts expect the ECB to announce a package of measures at its next meeting in September. However, we still think that the Bank is more likely to roll out... 26th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dovish ECB paves way for lower rates elsewhere The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB should be ready to act in September The market reaction to today’s ECB press conference suggests that President Draghi was not as dovish as some investors had hoped for. But the big picture is that it seems clear that policy loosening... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index is consistent with the message from the PMI that the German economy made a very slow start to Q3. We still suspect that the ECB will wait until... 25th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish. The euro-zone does not seem to be on the brink of recession, but continued slow growth should... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brussels no longer flavour of the season Since last July, the development pipeline in Brussels has grown and prospects for economic growth and thus, occupier demand have nudged lower. While the low availability of Grade A stock will support... 22nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Domestic weakness to weigh on the Swedish krona It is becoming harder for the Riksbank to brush aside mounting signs of weakness in domestic demand. We expect it to turn more dovish, and the krona to weaken, over the second half of the year. 22nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss exporters exposed to the rising franc Swiss exporters are feeling the pinch from the stronger franc and we think that things will get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, having weakened in Q2, the Finnish economy is likely to remain... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB spring a surprise next week? Next week, we think that the ECB will say that interest rates will remain “at present or lower” levels at least through the middle of next year, and that it “stands ready” to re-start QE. Hints at a... 19th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Thinner yield spreads not yet a risk to Italian markets With bond yields falling, euro-zone property yield spreads have widened and remain high by historical standards. Admittedly, not all markets enjoy low bond yields, but even in Italy, where spreads... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to take the first step towards renewed stimulus Policymakers have been dropping hints for weeks that they plan to loosen monetary policy soon, and at July’s meeting they are likely to take a step in that direction by formally changing their forward... 18th July 2019 · 8 mins read
