Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB stuck between a rock and a hard place The re-inclusion of Switzerland on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of potential currency manipulators this week was interpreted by investors as a shot across the bow of the SNB. However, we doubt... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Christine Lagarde’s honeymoon continues At Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as ECB President next week, the Governing Council is sure to leave the main policy settings unchanged. The increase in inflation at the end of last year means... 16th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has not shut the door on further easing The account of December’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Governing Council is content to leave monetary policy unchanged for some time. But it left the option of further easing on the table – an... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weakness to spread across Nordic retail sector As the slowdown in household spending and the growth in e-commerce weighs on prime retail rents, we think that rents will fall in all Nordic cities this year. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The fact that Swedish inflation was unchanged in December came as a surprise to nobody. But given our view that underlying price pressures will continue to moderate, we are sticking to our non... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update High rents and softer economy weigh on Spanish retail Despite Spain’s relatively strong economic outlook compared to its European peers, with real prime rents at high levels and the economy losing momentum, we think that prime retail rents will fall in... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Another false dawn for inflation? We doubt that the increase in core inflation late last year marks the start of a sustained upward trend. After all, inflation has risen on several previous occasions recently, only to fall back again... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank leaves door ajar for rate hike reversal Having resumed its interventions to weaken the Swiss franc after the recent flare-up in geopolitical tensions, we think that it will only be a matter of time before a rate cut comes back on the agenda... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone starts the year on a weak note Hopes that the euro-zone economy will gather pace in the coming months are likely to be dashed. The latest business surveys point to growth stabilising but not recovering in the final quarter of last... 9th January 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) lthough the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
