Europe Commercial Property Update Key predictions for European property in 2020 With interest rates set to stay lower for longer, we think that property yields will decline further in 2020. The exception is retail where, outside of Emerging Europe, yields are expected to rise in... 8th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How did our predictions for 2019 stack up? While we could have been bolder with our forecast for rental growth in Europe, in particular Nordic offices, on the whole our forecasts for 2019 proved to be correct. 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s inflation data will provide some relief to policymakers at the ECB, but we are still sceptical that core inflation is about to start on a sustained upward trend. In our view, the Bank’s... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Dec.) Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Dec.) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December was revised up slightly, but taken together with the other available evidence, this still suggests that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in Q4. And Germany... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 2020 will be another disappointing year The latest data suggest that the euro-zone economy might have avoided a further slowdown in Q4 last year, adding to the evidence that growth is “bottoming out”. However, the economy seems to have... 3rd January 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy sluggish, Sweden’s woes persist The latest surveys suggest that the Swiss economy is set to carry on growing at a fairly sluggish pace in the first half of this year, while Sweden’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ troubles likely to re-emerge in 2020s The euro-zone is ending this decade in better shape than it ended the last one. But its fundamental problems have not been resolved, so we expect the region to face serious challenges in the decade to... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Predictions for the euro-zone in 2020 We think the euro-zone will continue to struggle in the first half of 2020 as Germany and Italy remain close to recession and inflation stays well below target, prompting the ECB to loosen policy... 19th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do equities suggest about euro-zone property? Although the anaemic performance of the euro-zone economy is expected to weigh on occupier demand, real estate equity markets suggest that confidence in property markets has held up. We think that... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus France labour market progress not due to reforms French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on overhauling France’s ailing labour market is long overdue. But while there are signs that the changes are starting to take effect, the labour market... 17th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rally in the Swedish krona is unlikely to last What a difference a few months make; from being the worst performing G10 currency by some margin between the start of the year and late October, the Swedish krona has risen by about 3% against the... 16th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Dec.) and Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The flash PMIs for December will disappoint those looking forward to a happier New Year. Indeed, they point to euro-zone GDP being almost flat in Q4 and a continued industrial recession. Looking... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A dove in owls clothing Christine Lagarde seems to have similar views on monetary policy to Mario Draghi. And she admitted that inflation is likely to remain below target in the medium term, and that the latest TLTRO auction... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weaker outlook for occupier demand A weaker outlook for bond yields in Scandinavia and Switzerland means that falls in office and industrial yields are likely to extend into 2021. However, with rental prospects weak and yields rising... 13th December 2019 · 33 mins read
