Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still in love with zero While the Riksbank left policy unchanged this week, we suspect that weak GDP growth and inflation will prompt it to ease policy soon. Next week’s data are likely to show that inflation fell in Sweden... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office rents to hold up despite boost to supply Softer office occupier demand is expected to weigh on German prime office rents this year. But we still think that rents can grow at a decent pace because, even though office supply is expected to... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Coronavirus driving financial market moves The initial financial market reaction in Switzerland and the Nordics to the coronavirus followed the familiar pattern during times of uncertainty: the Swiss franc rose and Swiss bond yields tumbled on... 13th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in December came as no surprise after the very weak national data already published. The timelier surveys suggest that industry will continue to... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway, Switz. & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the continued absence of price... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft patch for Norwegian GDP set to be short lived Q4 GDP data from Norway confirmed that the mainland economy lost momentum late last year, but we think that it is only a matter of time before activity regains momentum. Next week, the Riksbank is all... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth likely to remain weak in Q1 This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone, and we now expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy failed to grow at all in Q4 while German GDP contracted. While... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) The 3.5% slump in industrial production in December flies in the face of the widely-held view that Germany’s manufacturing sector was on the mend at the end of last year. And even before the... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone fiscal policy less effective than it once was Hopes for a substantial boost to economic growth in the euro-zone from fiscal policy in the next year or two are likely to be disappointed. It seems likely that any fiscal stimulus will be very small... 6th February 2020 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property investment to hold up in 2020 The latest data revealed that commercial property investment in the euro-zone held steady at a record high level. And with favourable relative pricing and capital readily available, we think that... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that household consumption growth slowed sharply in Q4. Meanwhile, the upward revision to January’s euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How might coronavirus impact European high streets? A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
