Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in headline inflation in Israel to a near 8-year high of 1.7% y/y in June was largely a result of base effects that pushed up food inflation. The muted 0.1% m/m rise in prices suggests that... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics New guidance will set the bar higher for rate hikes The ECB will set out next week what its new strategy implies for its monetary policy. Having nudged up the target to a symmetrical 2% and stressed that it will tolerate some overshooting, the... 15th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update High construction costs unlikely to curb 2021 supply With price pressures in the construction sector likely to prove transitory, we think that the hit to activity will be small. That said, we expect construction activity to slow over the coming years on... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing A tale of two rental markets While London rents are set to reverse some of the fall of the past year, we doubt the premium of rents in the capital over the national average will return to its pre-virus level. But outside London... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Investors’ ECB rate hike expectations look premature There has been very little market reaction to the ECB raising its inflation target to 2%, probably because the change was broadly in line with expectations. But markets are discounting ECB rate hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) The small increase in headline CPI inflation and small decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation will make no difference to the immediate outlook for monetary policy, not least because... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP in no rush to tighten policy Poland’s central bank left interest rates on hold today and, while it revised up its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, there was little sign in the accompanying press statement that the balance on... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s new strategy consistent with looser for longer The details of the monetary strategy review were slightly less radical than had been suggested in parts of the financial media. But the changes announced today still amount to a historic shift away... 8th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE office occupier activity past the worst Despite poor employment prospects, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for CEE leasing activity as the economic recovery gets underway. However, large supply pipelines mean that improving... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
