Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope

Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23^rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best guess is that the Spring statement will contain a package of no more than £10bn in 2022/23 (1.0% of GDP). We’ve incorporated that in our GDP growth forecasts, which we have revised down this week to reflect the extra drag on activity from even higher inflation.