Europe Commercial Property Update Softer employment growth to drag on occupier activity After holding up despite the slowdown in economic activity, we expect jobs growth in office-based sectors to lose momentum over the next two years, weighing on occupier demand. This underpins our... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB policy likely to push bond yields and euro down While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation is still low Underlying inflation pressures in the euro-zone have been building over the past five years, but so slowly that it’s barely perceptible. And rather than being the start of a new trend, the jump in... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Signs of growing preference for European real estate Although the share of global capital raised by European-focused funds has reduced in the last couple of years, there are indications that investors are starting to view real estate in Europe as... 20th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Signs of growing preference for European real estate Although the share of global capital raised by European-focused funds has reduced in the last couple of years, there are indications that investors are starting to view real estate in Europe as... 20th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB stuck between a rock and a hard place The re-inclusion of Switzerland on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of potential currency manipulators this week was interpreted by investors as a shot across the bow of the SNB. However, we doubt... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Christine Lagarde’s honeymoon continues At Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as ECB President next week, the Governing Council is sure to leave the main policy settings unchanged. The increase in inflation at the end of last year means... 16th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has not shut the door on further easing The account of December’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Governing Council is content to leave monetary policy unchanged for some time. But it left the option of further easing on the table – an... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weakness to spread across Nordic retail sector As the slowdown in household spending and the growth in e-commerce weighs on prime retail rents, we think that rents will fall in all Nordic cities this year. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The fact that Swedish inflation was unchanged in December came as a surprise to nobody. But given our view that underlying price pressures will continue to moderate, we are sticking to our non... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
