Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Feb.) After February’s surprisingly strong inflation outturn and with energy prices surging, euro-zone inflation is very likely to rise above 6% in the coming months. It then looks set to remain well above... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holds up, but war in Ukraine a major risk February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia macro update: sharp contraction incoming The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia’s economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy prices to push inflation up furthest in periphery The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices will have a bigger effect on inflation in Italy and Spain this year than in Germany and France. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Most industrial markets overvalued in Q4 Higher government bond yields and falls in property yields across all sectors contributed to a deterioration in European property valuations in Q4. While most industrial markets now look overvalued... 1st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Three ways that Russia-Ukraine could impact gold We expect that the rise in the gold price so far this year will continue in the near term as safe-haven demand builds. That said, we expect that the price will fall when/if tensions cool. But the... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The increase in inflation in Germany and much bigger jumps elsewhere mean that euro-zone inflation for February will come in well above expectations. However, the ECB has bigger concerns at present... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The war in Ukraine and the impact on EMs The war in Ukraine and the ratcheting up of sanctions on Russia will have knock-on effects on the rest of the emerging world mainly through its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. Some EMs... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The muted rise in consumer credit in January suggests that the Omicron wave was still prompting households to exercise caution at the start of this year. With interest rates rising and the cost of... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) A third consecutive monthly rise in mortgage approvals suggests that housing market activity will remain higher than usual in the coming months as households continue to adjust to remote working. UK... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Net lending to property fell back in January, after reaching its highest level in 18 months in December. But overall net lending remained in positive territory, though we expect a number of challenges... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Manufacturing PMIs in February generally pointed to strong manufacturing conditions in the region, but the escalation of conflict in Ukraine adds to the clear downside risks to industry over the... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and SWIFT: key questions answered In this Update, we answer the key questions about what the exclusion of Russian banks for SWIFT means for Russia and the rest of the world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this... 28th February 2022 · 6 mins read
