Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s FX reserves to sanctions? The sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank freeze a significant portion of its foreign currency assets, rendering at least half largely unusable. The sharp tightening of capital controls today... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Russia-Ukraine and the risks to commercial property The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added significant new uncertainty for investors. We expect Moscow property will take a substantial hit, but the impact on the wider European property market will be... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: Some scenarios for the UK economy As it stands at the moment, we still think that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is more likely to boost inflation in the UK by more than it reduces GDP growth and that the Bank of England will continue... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s banks on the brink The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis. They face both large deposit withdrawals and the prospect of a rise in non-performing loans, which... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Reflecting on the week that war began Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week will have significant and far-reaching implications and while reports of talks raise hopes, a halt to fighting does not look imminent. Russia's economy is likely... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How the Russia-Ukraine war is shaking up the markets outlook Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics How will Russia/Ukraine influence the BoE’s rate hike plans? As it stands at the moment, we don’t think that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will delay or derail the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates further. That’s because the Bank will probably be a... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey suggests that commercial property will have a better year than initially thought. Our total returns forecast for 2022 is in line with that of consensus, but beyond this... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update The impact of the invasion of Ukraine on UK property Much has been made of UK property’s openness to Russian money following the invasion of Ukraine. But since the depreciation of the Russian ruble in 2014, Russians have become far less important to... 25th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) February’s increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator showed that confidence was high before the recent news about the conflict in Ukraine. It also showed that supply shortages remained severe... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Six questions on Ukraine and the euro-zone The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook for the euro-zone. While things are changing rapidly, at this stage we think the main effects will be... 24th February 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Markets right to bet on interest rates peaking at 2.00% Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate... 24th February 2022 · 12 mins read
