Europe Commercial Property Emerging Europe: All-property values jump in Q4 Sharp falls in property yields and an improvement in rental growth pushed CEE all-property values in Q4 up almost 5% q/q, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2007. This was largely driven by the... 24th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis could add 1.5% to EZ inflation this year In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Homeowners to keep on moving in 2022 Homeowners appear to be pressing ahead with plans to move house even though stamp duty is now fully reinstated. Transactions inevitably dipped last October as sales were rushed through in September to... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Jan.) Core inflation looks set to keep rising as the effects of global demand-supply imbalances persist. And the Ukraine crisis means that the risks to our above-consensus headline inflation forecasts lie... 23rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation if Russian energy flows disrupted A spike in energy prices caused by significant disruption to Russian exports would lift Japanese inflation to 2% from April until the end of this year. However, the BoJ wouldn’t respond by lifting its... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will remain higher in euro-zone core Inflation differentials across the euro-zone are unusually wide, in large part due to differences in energy inflation. But we don’t expect this to last. In the coming years, we think that inflation... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the possible impact of sanctions Russia’s decision to send troops to eastern Ukraine has prompted US sanctions on the two breakaway Ukrainian regions, and Western governments are lining up further measures that would hit Russia... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (February) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in February strengthens our view that conditions in the German economy continued to improve during Q1. While the latest escalation of Russia-Ukraine... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jan.) Public sector net borrowing was in surplus in January as the figures were flattered by the usual bump from higher income tax receipts. Nonetheless, it was a smaller surplus than the Office for Budget... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Less scope for yield falls There was a material improvement in the Scandinavian and Swiss property markets over 2021. Prime office and industrial capital value growth accelerated. And while prime retail values still declined... 21st February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel hints at lift-off in April The strength of the latest activity, labour market and inflation data prompted a shift in guidance from the Bank of Israel today in which it said that it may start a tightening cycle in the coming... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
