The small drop in CPI inflation from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December (consensus forecast 10.5%) and the unchanged core rate of 6.3% (consensus 6.2%) suggest the inflation battle is not yet won. This supports our view that the Bank of England will raise Bank Rate from 3.50% to 4.00% on 2nd February and to a peak of 4.50% in the coming months.
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