Africa Economics Weekly Worsening relations with the US, SARB rate cut Both South Africa and Nigeria have seen diplomatic relations with the US become more strained this week, although for now domestic dynamics should continue to support a more positive growth outlook in... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cuts and strikes a dovish tone The South African Reserve Bank resumed its easing cycle today with a 25bp cut (to 6.75%) and the dovish accompanying communication increases our confidence that the SARB will cut the repo by another... 20th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy lost momentum in Q3 The latest activity data suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, to around 0.5% q/q, and we expect it to remain around this rate over the coming quarters, helped by improved terms... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) Although headline inflation in South Africa rose, to 3.6% y/y, last month, the decline in core inflation, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to give policymakers at the Reserve Bank confidence that they can meet... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS fallout, renminbi debt risks South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana couldn’t have wished for a better response from investors to this week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) and his decision to lower the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: an opportunistic MTBPS South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as an opportunity to spend a large chunk of a recent revenue windfall to boost the economy. But this is likely... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: structural reforms lag fiscal improvement South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has made important progress in tackling supply-side bottlenecks in the energy and logistics sectors. But, overall, our assessment is that the GNU’s... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump takes aim at Nigeria, build up to MTBPS Nigeria became the latest country to face President Trump's wrath this week. For now, there are reasons to think that any economic impact will be limited. But it’s another reason for African... 7th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: narrower deficit means few fireworks at MTBPS The improvement in South Africa’s budget position and sharp fall in local currency bond yields mean less is at stake at next week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) than there was at the... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debt restructuring, fiscal risks, elections Mozambique’s key gas projects are at risk of further delays, which appears to have tipped the government towards seeking a debt restructuring. But while Mozambique stands out for having particularly... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025) EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported... 29th October 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to watch as Tanzania heads to the polls? Tanzania’s presidential election tomorrow is likely to result in a win for incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan and ongoing investments into infrastructure and the extractives sector will support strong GDP... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China’s exports, South Africa’s latest GNU policy fight Chinese trade data out this week showed that the surge in exports to Africa continued, which most countries in the region seem to be welcoming. And taken together with efforts to reduce the costs of... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep' 25) South Africa’s weaker-than-expected headline inflation reading of 3.4% y/y for September should do more than enough to sway the Reserve Bank to restart its monetary easing cycle next month, with the... 22nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
