Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa’s GDP fell by a sharper-than-expected 1.3% q/q in Q4, and the broad-based weakness in economic activity is unlikely to improve any time soon as severe power cuts and fiscal consolidation... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Post-election trickle of reforms in Nigeria, SA navy drills The results of Nigeria’s presidential election were quickly challenged by the opposition this week, which is likely to keep investors on tenterhooks. And even once the dust settles, we suspect that... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s elections: no U-turn away from “Buharinomics” Hopes that Nigeria’s elections would usher in a markedly more business-friendly administration were dashed after the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu was declared president-elect. Economic policy under a... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides further signs that the country’s electricity crisis is taking a heavy toll on the economy. And the jump in the prices component... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What you need to know about Nigeria’s elections In the final stretch before Nigeria’s elections on Saturday, we answer key questions about the polls and the economic consequences of the vote. 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update We are sceptical of Nigeria’s oil production promises We don’t think that the election in Nigeria on Saturday will lead to a sudden improvement in crude oil production. The oil industry’s challenges in the country are too deep-seated. But the long... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa sticking with fiscal prudence In today’s budget speech, South Africa’s finance minister tried (largely successfully) to pull off the difficult task of sticking to fiscal prudence while partly relieving the struggling state-owned... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy recorded a surprisingly large pick-up in GDP growth, to 3.5% y/y, in Q4 but recent disruptions caused by the demonetisation process are likely to have dampened growth at the start of... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 1677160800 Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path.
Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Nigeria’s public finances No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term. But victory for an opposition candidate could make the... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in South Africa continued to decline, to 6.9% y/y in January, but we think that the Reserve Bank will err on the side of delivering a final 25bp rate hike to (7.50%) at the next policy... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa triggers disaster law, Nigeria’s polls The declaration of a state of disaster in South Africa’s State of the Nation Address over the deepening energy crisis has grabbed the headlines and, in the small print, there were signs of a... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s sorry state of the nation South Africa’s upcoming State of the Nation Address will undoubtedly focus on addressing the deepening energy crisis. But there’s little that the authorities can do to ease power cuts in the near-term... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read