Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal, monetary policy to act as a shock absorber Higher crude oil revenues are likely to allow Ghana’s government to loosen fiscal policy which, taken together with the lagged impact of the large monetary easing cycle, should support the economy. We... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: what to expect from Abiy’s next term Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party will almost certainly win the election taking place today but the next administration faces a host of challenges. The government still... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food Inflation, Angola Eurobond, Nigeria GDP The South African Reserve Bank talked up inflation risks at its meeting this week, at which it hiked rates by 25bp, but the tightening cycle is likely to be modest. Elsewhere, Angola has tapped... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but tightening cycle to be short The South African Reserve Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% today as expected and, while it acknowledged that inflation risks are firmly to the upside, the Reserve Bank still looks likely to... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May 26) Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: from one energy crisis to the next South Africa this week marked a full year without power outages, but the effects of the energy shock from the Iran war are now starting to kick in. We think the rise in inflation in April was probably... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The stronger-than-expected South African inflation reading for April (both headline and core) probably tips the balance towards the Reserve Bank (SARB) opting for a 25bp interest rate hike (to 7.00%)... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak naira providing little boost to industry The expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has helped to boost the current account surplus and allowed the central bank to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. But the sharp weakening of... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA impeachment, Angola & Zambia rate cuts This week’s restart of impeachment proceedings against South Africa’s President Ramaphosa threatens to stall the government’s reform agenda and, in turn, harm the prospect of achieving sustained GDP... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fuel price shock driving EM inflation higher Inflation data for April released across EMs suggest that the energy price shock has pushed fuel inflation up materially and that surveys of firms’ inflation expectations are rising sharply. So far... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dangote refinery helping Nigeria weather supply shock The Dangote oil refinery has materially improved Nigeria’s energy security, leaving it better insulated from oil price shocks than before. Nigeria is not immune from the inflationary pressures from... 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s opposition fractures, SSA inflation and El Niño The fracturing of Nigeria’s opposition has improved President Tinubu’s re-election chances. While Tinubu has helped to improve macroeconomic stability, whoever wins the election will need to tend to... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
