Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump

President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

EM Drop-in: South Africa’s budget – Third time’s a charm

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Our EM economists provided their immediate response to the South Africa budget in this 20-minute online briefing.

Event

Drop-In: South Africa’s 2025 Budget – Fiscal risks, macro and market consequences

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After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March.

Commodities Update

Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium

A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly...

6th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous

Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its...

6th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA: Trump’s focus on land bill risks GNU instability

The threat by President Trump to cut funding to South Africa due to the controversial land expropriation bill will (if implemented) have limited direct economic effects. The bigger concern is that the...

3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM industry struggling even before potential Trump tariffs

The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy...

3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID

South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important...

31st January 2025 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SARB hawkishly cuts by 25bp

The South African Reserve Bank decision to cut its repo rate by 25bp, to 7.50%, was widely expected but Governor Kganyago was more hawkish than anticipated, citing concern about US tariff threats and...

30th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some...

30th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025)

Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and...

29th January 2025 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2025)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing...

28th January 2025 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Nigeria oil and BRICS, Mozambique LNG delay

Nigeria recently became the BRICS group's latest "partner" member, adding to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. But that...

24th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s activity data signals strong end to 2024

South Africa’s activity data for November points to a strong end to last year, underpinned by the mining and retail sectors. We think GDP will expand by an above-consensus 2.3% in 2025.

22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec' 24)

The smaller-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.0% y/y, in November, combined with the recent recovery in the rand, supports our view that the SARB can continue with its...

22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read