Global Economic Outlook On course for a soft landing In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US... 28th March 2024 · 45 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth divergence set to continue We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers... 14th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds 1707404400 While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A tepid recovery Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 7th December 2023 · 21 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa financial stability risks, Kenya’s housing levy The South African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review out this week shone the spotlight on the risks posed by local banks’ growing holdings of government debt – risks that are only likely to... 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Public debt risks remain acute in several Frontiers Sovereign debt risks across Frontier Markets have eased slightly since last quarter. But dollar-bond spreads in Ethiopia have jumped following its request for debt-service suspension earlier this week... 16th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank resilience improves, but risks continue to lurk Higher profitability has helped to boost EM banks’ financial positions over the past year and reduced the tail of weak banks that might struggle to cope with rising loan losses on their balance sheets... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read