Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria borrowing more, South Africa reforms Nigeria's ambitious borrowing plans suggest that the oil windfall (and more) will be spent, leaving the public finances vulnerable to a fall in oil prices and slower nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2026) Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher global bond yields. Our aggregate EM... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s GDP upgrade flatters economic challenges The revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data mean the economy is now 5% larger, at $450bn, than previously estimated, which lowers headline public finance ratios. However, this will not change... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 26) Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is proving resilient in the face of the energy shock and tighter global financial conditions. We’re more optimistic than the consensus on growth in much of the region... 28th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from South Africa’s local elections South Africa’s municipal elections next week are set to deliver another setback for the African National Congress (ANC), with the Democratic Alliance (DA) likely to make gains. We think fears about... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA fiscal policy gains, Ghana mineral export ban South Africa’s markets welcomed this week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), affirming our view that continued fiscal discipline and higher infrastructure spending are brightening the... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation remains on track South Africa’s finance minister announced in today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) that the revenue windfall had persisted, allowing him to cover higher debt servicing costs and lift non... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Brazil and South Africa could do with new fiscal rules New fiscal rules mooted in Brazil and South Africa could, if implemented, make significant inroads into their public debt problems by reducing high borrowing costs. But the devil will lie in the... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa services inflation not yet a major cause for alarm The rise in services inflation in South Africa has grabbed the attention of the Reserve Bank but we don’t think it is currently high or widespread enough to prompt further rate hikes. And, so long as... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s conundrum, regional rating agency Contained inflation and higher FX reserves have given Kenya's central bank a buffer to avoid hiking interest rates for now, but we still think the shilling will eventually need to be devalued and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s resilient economy to keep accelerating Nigeria’s economy picked up over the first half of the year and we think growth will accelerate into 2027-28, supported by rising oil production, recovering real incomes, and increasingly supportive... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
