Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: GNU anniversary, Kenya protests, Angola IMF loan The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Israel-Iran impact, US-Africa trade, DRC peace deal The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy struggling at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that the weakness of South Africa’s economy in the first quarter of the year – in which GDP expanded by a measly 0.1% q/q – carried over into the start of Q2. Industry... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May' 25.) The fact that South Africa’s headline inflation was unchanged at 2.8% y/y in May, lends more evidence that the SARB should be unworried about underlying price pressures in the economy. Coming... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2025) South Africa’s muted 0.1% q/q growth in the first quarter of the year on the back of a downwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 of last year suggests the recovery is losing momentum. That will only... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Two years of Tinubu, SARB cut & inflation target Bola Tinubu marked his two year anniversary as Nigeria’s president this week by talking of new spending plans funded by foreign loans – which seems to be aimed in part at least at shoring up his... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB makes a dovish shift The South African Reserve bank resumed its interest rate easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.25%, and there was a marked dovish shift among the MPC, suggesting – as we have long thought – that... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget, SARB to cut, Transnet, Ramaphosa-Trump South Africa’s finance minister appears to have succeeded – at the third time of asking – at delivering a 2025 Budget that will make it through parliament. But it seems almost certain that tensions... 23rd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA Budget: slippage, GNU tensions to resurface soon South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s third attempt at delivering the 2025 Budget should have enough support in parliament now, but it’s come at the cost of a slightly larger budget... 21st May 2025 · 5 mins read
