Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB cuts and unofficially adopts lower inflation target The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to continue with its interest easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.00% was unsurprising, and the highlight of the meeting was Governor Kganyago’s... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA interest rate cuts, Nigeria tax reform The weak inflation reading for June out of South Africa this week strengthens the case for the SARB to cut interest rates on Thursday. And further out we think that rates will be lowered by more than... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s automotive sector is at a crossroads US tariffs have hit South Africa’s auto sector hard, but the sector also faces deeper structural challenges, including weaker demand growth in key export markets and competition from Chinese producers... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun' 25) South Africa’s headline inflation rate may have edged up to 3.0% y/y in June, but the further easing of core inflation suggests the SARB should remain unworried about underlying price pressures... 23rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: rebasing lifts GDP but realities unchanged The rebasing exercise by Nigeria’s statistics office means that the economy is now estimated to be more than 30% larger than previously thought. While the national accounts data now better reflect the... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria inflation, South Africa G20 & low inflation Nigeria’s inflation slowed again last month, and we think high real interest rates and a stable naira will allow disinflation to continue. The surprise rise in core inflation, however, is likely to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Could South Africa be about to see a big bond rally? 1753362000 Is South Africa on the brink of a major shift in its inflation targeting framework?
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s bumpy recovery to continue May’s activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economic recovery remains slow and bumpy. While industry appears to have fared better recently, consumer-facing sectors appear to be losing steam... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities 1754488800 Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
