Africa Economics Weekly SA food inflation slump, Ethiopia FX, Zambia election The fall in South African inflation in July is likely to be followed by a pick-up in the coming months due to unfavourable base effects. But underlying inflation pressures, as well as food inflation... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: softer Q2 but reasons to be upbeat The latest batch of activity data from South Africa point to GDP growth softening to around 0.3% q/q in the second quarter. That said, we remain confident in our above-consensus forecast for the... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul. 26) The large fall in South African inflation in July, to 4.3% y/y, will likely prove a blip and the headline rate is likely to rise into early 2027. That should keep the SARB on the sidelines in the near... 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. 26) The fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate from 15.9% in June to a lower-than-expected 15.4% y/y in July, suggest that the door is open to the resumption of the monetary easing cycle next month. 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s inflation outlook still benign South Africa’s inflation figures for July, due next Wednesday, are likely to show a temporary drop (probably to 4.3%) and the headline rate is likely to rise back to around 5% by early 2027. But we... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Zambia’s election President Hakainde Hichilema enters tomorrow’s general elections in Zambia as the frontrunner, buoyed by progress on long-running sovereign debt restructuring and a strong copper windfall. The next... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can Africa move up the commodity value chain? Governments in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly turning to interventionist measures to boost refining of commodities. But many of the conditions to make this a success, including transport... 11th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana soft inflation, Nigeria’s military get spending boost Ghana’s surprisingly soft inflation print for July suggests that another rate cut is possible, but robust growth and the BoG’s drive to build its credibility and stabilise the cedi mean we still think... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana and South Africa’s fiscal discipline paying off Ghana's reforms under its IMF program, which finished this week, have given the government space to loosen policy to support growth. Fiscal discipline is also paying off in South Africa, where the... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: lower US tariffs, but China will be the key partner Sub-Saharan Africa has come out of the latest round of US tariffs in a better position relative both to last year and to many other EMs. That will provide opportunities for some countries. But even so... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think growth will accelerate from here. Although inflation rose last month, most central banks will be able to... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Hawkish holds in Ghana & Nigeria, dovish hold in South Africa The decisions by central banks in Nigeria and Ghana to hold interest rates (rather than cut) suggests that policymakers in both countries are focusing on burnishing their inflation-fighting... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB signals high bar for additional rate hikes The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) surprise decision to keep its policy rate on hold (rather than hike) today suggests that the MPC isn’t as hawkish as we had thought, and our base case now is... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
