Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 2.8% y/y still left it below the lower bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and, ordinarily, would make us more confident that the easing... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Central Bank of Nigeria left its policy rate on hold at 27.50% today and, with the disinflation progressing slowly and concerns that low oil prices will put downward pressure on the naira, it... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Third time lucky for South Africa’s 2025 Budget? South Africa’s finance minister takes his third stab at delivering the 2025 Budget on Wednesday. Disputes within the ruling GNU seem to have been resolved but this may come at the cost of slippage on... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Insecurity in Nigeria: will Tinubu fix it? Nigeria’s long-running security challenges have brought obvious human costs, and they have also contributed to the economy’s woes by hurting output in the agriculture and oil sectors, weakening demand... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 25th July 2025) · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SSA fiscal slippage, SA reforms, Ghana inflation Leaders across Sub-Saharan Africa faced with fiscal strains are embracing tax reform rather than rises to maintain fiscal consolidation efforts, but we doubt that this will be sufficient to prevent... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update China’s export surge and what it means for Africa The prospect of a flood of low-cost Chinese exports to African shores may help those economies suffering from high inflation but it risks undermining the growth of domestic industry. Governments in... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting... 28th April 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar' 25.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 2.7% y/y in March will give the Reserve Bank more confidence that its easing cycle can resume. We expect a 25bp reduction to... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB’s Monetary Policy Review, Nigeria Inflation The SARB’s Monetary Policy Review published this week set out plenty of upside risks to inflation, but it looks like some of the risks from VAT hikes and tariffs have diminished. With inflation likely... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak activity data, but recovery to resume The February activity figures out of South Africa showed that the economy was struggling even before the added headwind from US import tariffs. But while there are downside risks to growth, we still... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
