Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s non-oil growth fuelled by hydrocarbons Rapid growth in non-oil sectors has raised some hopes that the Gulf countries may finally be diversifying away from a reliance on hydrocarbons. But as we explain in this Watch, the recent expansion of... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Which indicators will be most affected by the sales tax hike? If Japan’s past is a guide, some spending will be brought forward ahead of April’s consumption tax hike and it will slump thereafter. The experience from the 1997 increase in the same tax suggests... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price expectations harden By bringing forward the launch of the Help to Buy guarantee scheme, the Government has given a further boost to expectations that house prices must rise. That has led to very tight market conditions... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of financial repression Financial repression - official policies that lower artificially a government's cost of borrowing - is likely to play an important ongoing role in liquidating high levels of public debt in advanced... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in gilt yields not a sign forward guidance is working The MPC should think twice before concluding that the fall in interest rate expectations and gilt yields in recent months is a sign that markets are coming around to its views on the economic outlook... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack US outlook still the key influence on gilt yields Despite the acceleration of the UK’s economic recovery, gilt yields and interest rate expectations have fallen back over the last month. It would be tempting to conclude that the markets are starting... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling food inflation but core concerns persist in Brazil Slowing food inflation dragged headline inflation in most of Latin America last month, but that masks significant differences in the underlying outlook for inflation within the region. While inflation... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rate cut welcome, but not a game-changer While the ECB’s largely unexpected decision to cut interest rates was welcome, the central bank cannot address the deep-seated problems still facing the currency union. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank pulls the trigger on unconventional easing Faced with growing concerns about deflation, the Czech National Bank voted to ease monetary policy further today by intervening in the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna. Few details were... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised, from 2.0%, was largely due to a bigger than expected boost from inventory accumulation, which added 0.8% points to the headline figure. At... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment market recovery not warranted by occupier fundamentals Increased optimism in the euro-zone’s economic outlook may have prompted some investors to look through what they perceive to be the final stages of the occupier market downturn. But October’s fall in... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks still on downside but prices looking more reasonable After two to three years of generally poor performance, many commodity prices have now fallen to levels that are starting to appear attractive again. We still think the near-term risks generally lie... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests slowdown in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy lost a bit of steam in Q3, with annualised GDP growth slowing to around 2.2% q/q, from 3.0% q/q in Q2. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending outlook brightens While real pay looks set to continue to fall until mid-2014, rising wealth, further modest gains in employment, income tax cuts and looser credit conditions should all help to sustain the recovery in... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
