UK Economics Update MPC probably united ahead of Inflation Report With the economic recovery proceeding more quickly than the MPC expected, but little pressure on forward guidance’s knockouts, today’s decision to leave policy unchanged was probably a unanimous one... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s German industrial production figures suggest that the country’s supposed growth engine may have slowed somewhat, if not stalled. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s government accepts weaker growth is here to stay The sharp downgrade to the long-run growth forecasts released by Russia’s Economy Ministry earlier today is the clearest signal yet that Moscow believes that economic weakness over the past year has... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hike in Malaysia likely in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. As the economy gains a firmer footing on the back of improving export prospects over the next year, we expect... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Impact of tax hike starting to be felt There are tentative signs in recent data of an increase in spending that we suspect is linked to April's consumption tax hike. In particular, construction orders have soared as homebuilders seek to... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Energy rebound boosts third-quarter GDP growth Canada's economic growth appears to have accelerated to close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years, thanks partly to a rebound in energy production. With other... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Robust investment market built on shaky fundamentals The improvement in the euro-zone economy has supported a relatively active quarter for commercial property investment in Q3. Moreover, some types of investors have become increasingly willing to look... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank extends “forward guidance” The Polish National Bank extended its version of “forward guidance” today, stating that interest rates will be left on hold until the second half of next year. We think the existence of significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 13) The latest dip in mortgage approvals offers further evidence of a moderation in the rate of the housing recovery. But if the wider economic recovery picks up speed next year as we expect, mortgage... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) October’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI to 51.9 suggests that the recovery continued at the start of Q4, but at a sluggish pace. Furthermore, September’s retail sales data highlight that... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s industrial production figures showed that the sector is continuing to recover, albeit more slowly than indicated by the recent surveys. As things stand, production looks on course to rise... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct. 13) Halifax reported another strong rise in house prices in October. Widespread expectations that house prices will rise in the future, fanned by ill-conceived Government interventions, have led to a... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
