Japan Economics Weekly What’s causing the widening in the trade deficit? Japan’s trade deficit has reached a record high in recent months. This is often attributed to a surge in energy imports after the shutdown of the country’s nuclear reactors. However, energy import... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The unexpected rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half-year high of 56.4 in October, from 56.2, suggests that manufacturers weren't notably affected by the government shutdown. The... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s industrial recovery likely to outshine Brazil’s October’s manufacturing PMIs rose to exactly the same level in both Brazil and Mexico. But of the two economies, we suspect the recovery is more likely to be sustained in Mexico. 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Ample supply offsets improving prospects for demand The US Federal government shutdown, and subsequent reopening, seems to have had little impact on commodity markets. If anything, the prospect of an extended period of monetary stimulus has supported... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa PMI points to growth of 3% annualised The South African manufacturing PMI rose in October, suggesting that growth in the sector has picked up at the start of Q4. However, the series has been volatile in recent months. Cutting through some... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Oct.) October’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing suggested that output in the sector has continued to expand at a robust pace despite recent unhelpful developments such as sterling’s appreciation and the... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct 13.) Both PMI surveys released today suggest that China’s manufacturing sector picked up at the beginning of Q4. But in each case the breakdown of the survey paints a less rosy picture than the headline... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update October PMIs suggest recovery is becoming entrenched The October PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally upbeat, with headline numbers for most countries rising. New orders were particularly encouraging, which bodes well for the short-term outlook. India... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed tapering still likely to start in March, but earlier is possible 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus EU trade deal would provide only modest benefits The Canadian government's new free trade agreement with the EU, should it be ratified, will provide only modest economic benefits. Since this ratification will take a year or two, the trade deal does... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation behind decision to keep Egypt rates on hold The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Is the South African rand really undervalued? The extent of its fall so far this year has made the South African rand appear undervalued when the current real effective exchange rate is compared both to its long-run average and to its long-run... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer stance With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Low inflation to delay Colombian interest rate hikes The monetary easing cycle in Colombia appears to now be over but, by the same token, interest rate hikes are probably still some way off. We expect rates to remain lower for longer than most expect... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Aug.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in August GDP suggests that the economy grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, stronger than our previous estimate of 2.0%. But since much... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
