Asia Economics Update No rebound in Indonesia’s growth likely soon Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia slowed again in Q3. Looking ahead, high inflation and recent interest rate hikes will weigh on growth over the next year. 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equities boosted by debt-ceiling resolution The extension of the debt ceiling and continued indications that the Fed will not reduce the pace of its asset purchases for a while helped buoy a range of assets in October. Equities benefited more... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation? We do not think the world as a whole is heading for a period of deflation. However, peripheral eurozone countries may experience an extended period of falling, or at best stable, prices. We also... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Fed taper be a game-changer? The question of exactly when the US Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has understandably been the focus of much analysis and speculation (including by ourselves). There are six... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rate (Q3 13) The homeownership rate ticked up in the third quarter of the year. But the recent drop in home sales and mortgage demand, as well as the fact that the rise was driven by older households, suggests... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Limited upside for the US stock market The US stock market has performed strongly since the end of August, with the S&P 500 posting a total return of nearly 9%. However, we think the index will struggle to make further headway and forecast... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR Governor signals further easing to come in Romania Having lowered interest rates earlier today, Romania’s National Bank Governor, Mugur Isarescu, gave a strong hint that further cuts are likely in the months ahead. This dovish stance has been... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible next year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation having peaked, pressure to raise rates in the near term has eased. But a large current account deficit that is... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov 13.) After rising through the summer, consumer price inflation looks set to be stable over the rest of the year. With policymakers signalling renewed efforts to rein in credit growth, inflation should... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep. 13) The CoreLogic house price index suggests that the recent easing in house price pressures went into reverse during September. But with signs that the rise in interest rates has had a more pronounced... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Oct.) The CIPS business surveys suggest that the UK economy got off to a very strong start in Q4. An improvement on Q3’s 0.8% expansion would seem eminently possible. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tentative signs that the worst may be over for Egypt October’s PMI data provide the first signs that the Egyptian economy may be emerging from the worst of the fallout from the “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies are growing at a healthy... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway's housing boom is ending Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) The BRC’s measure of retail sales pointed to fairly subdued growth in spending in October. But we still think the outlook for the retail sector remains fairly favourable. Improving levels of consumer... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
