Japan Economics Weekly The fallout from Fukushima The impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on energy imports is often overestimated. By contrast, the impact on exports is generally overlooked. The disaster has significantly reduced how much... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Moving the goal posts could dent the Fed's credibility Lowering the unemployment rate threshold would appear to be a neat way for the Fed to commit to leaving interest rates at near-zero for longer and perhaps offset any tightening in financial conditions... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cut to provide only a little boost The ECB’s unexpected interest rate cut last week was certainly a pleasant surprise and suggests that it is not writing off the potential threat of deflation. But there was little in the press... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could raise rate expectations This week’s Bank of England Inflation Report looks likely to include a downward revision to the MPC’s forecast for the unemployment rate, bringing forward the date at which it is expected to hit the 7... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's moderate 13,200 increase in employment, which was only slightly above the consensus estimate of 11,000, is further evidence that the economy is struggling to produce any material improvement... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 204,000 gain in October's non-farm payrolls, combined with a cumulative 60,000 upward revision to the gains in the two preceding months will mostly definitely increase... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The further drop in the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a two-year low of 72.0 in November, from 73.2, is hard to explain given that the government reopened, the labour market... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese imports need not be bullish The pick-up in China's imports of commodities in recent months is perhaps further evidence of the recovery in economic activity already seen in other data, but is not necessarily telling us much about... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly When India sneezes... India is by a long way the largest economy in South Asia. It is eight times the size of Pakistan and more than 30 times the size of Sri Lanka. India’s current weakness might therefore be expected to... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 13) Today's RICS data point to an emphatic rebound in occupier market confidence and activity, supporting our view that there'll be a solid rental recovery next year. 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia still happy to bide its time The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept interest rates on hold today and gave little indication that it is about to loosen policy to support the struggling economy. 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) September’s trade figures show that the UK economy continues to see an imbalance between domestic and overseas demand. And while export surveys have been positive, consumer demand may mean the trade... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru follows Chile’s lead with surprise rate cut Peru surprised markets with an interest rate cut last night, becoming the latest in a line of Latin American central banks to launch into easing mode in 2013. Although the timing of yesterday’s rate... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Positive signs on foreign demand Strong imports of industrial commodities last month suggest that China’s investment led rebound was holding up relatively well early in Q4. However, with policymakers again focussing on risks from... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Ageing population need not hit workforce growth too hard The ONS’ latest population projections suggest that the UK’s population will age even more rapidly than previously expected. But we doubt this will feed into a one-for-one fall in workforce growth and... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
