Capital Daily UK Inflation Report could temporarily raise rate expectations 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s inflation figures suggest that the UK economy is hitting a sweet spot of accelerating GDP growth and declining price pressures. And inflation is likely to fall further in the near future. 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum President Xi raised expectations ahead of the Third Plenum with talk of a “Master Plan” for reform. We should learn more in the days ahead but, based on what has been revealed so far, the decisions... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The worst is now behind Mexico The Mexican economy has had a year to forget, but the worst should now be behind it. While GDP growth may struggle to top 1.2% this year, we expect it to accelerate to over 4% y/y in 2014-15. This... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit most from a US recovery? A raft of strong activity data from the US suggests that the recovery there is gaining momentum. We expect growth in the US to accelerate further over the coming quarters. The biggest beneficiaries in... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big an impact could an Iran deal have on oil prices? Iran and the West appear to be edging towards an interim deal that should ease tensions over Iran's nuclear programme, despite the impasse in Geneva at the weekend. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the RICS survey right about property prospects in Emerging Europe? The message from the latest RICS survey was that property prospects in most parts of Emerging Europe are subdued, a view we broadly share. The exceptions are the Czech Republic, where we think capital... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth accelerates in the third quarter Our Saudi GDP Tracker suggests that the economic rebound continued in Q3, with output rising by around 5% y/y. The oil sector is growing once again while growth in the non-oil sector remains fairly... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Underemployment will keep wage pressure subdued Underemployment, where people are in employment but want to work more hours, reached a record high in the first half of 2013. This means that there is more slack in the labour market than the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak Q3 GDP caused by drop in investment The weaker-than-expected 1.2% y/y increase in Russian GDP in Q3 is likely to reinforce concerns that the slump in Emerging Europe’s largest economy over the past year will be longer-lasting than many... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak South African economy not a major threat to rest of region The ongoing weakness of the South African economy has raised questions over the potential impact on the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. In this Watch, we argue that, due to a variety of factors, trade... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Renewed underperformance from EM equities The small rise in most emerging market equities over the past month was eclipsed by the 4% or so rise in developed market equities. So far in 2013, emerging equity markets have underperformed... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia hikes, but rate tightening cycle is probably over Bank Indonesia’s decision to hike interest rates today is largely aimed at easing pressure on the current account and stabilising the rupiah. But the lagged impact of substantial rate increases in the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has more work to do to tackle the strong euro Last week’s cut in ECB interest rates has helped to relieve some of the near-term upward pressure on the euro. But the central bank will have to work harder to stop the strong currency from snuffing... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
