Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The slowdown in Q3 GDP follows unsustainably strong growth in the first half of the year and is therefore no cause for concern. The economy is likely to regain momentum in the near-term as spending is... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates to remain on prolonged hold in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low, the central bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates, and we expect... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro-zone economy probably expanded in Q3, but only just 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The rising costs of QE The further rise in the long-term costs of QE means that a smaller improvement in the economic data than before may be needed to prompt the Fed to slow the pace of its asset purchases. At the margin... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising corporate bond yields put pressure on US equities? The earnings yield of a stock market index should be closely related to the average real yield of long-dated bonds issued by its constituents. In the US, we think the latter is likely to rise... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed still set to hike before the BoE, but neither in any hurry Despite the recent improvement in the UK labour market, the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to lag behind the US Fed in raising interest rates. Over time, this should put renewed downward pressure on... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The further acceleration in annual house price growth to 3.1% in October, from 2.7%, reflects the recent rebound in home sales. Since the latter largely reflects a rush to take advantage of low... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the multi-family sector becoming overbuilt? Multi-family construction activity has bounced back strongly since the crash. But the pipeline of multi-family homes under construction does not look particularly large relative to the stock of... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lease-related data not as bad as they might seem Recent industry figures show that new lease lengths ticked down again in 2012. Of course, shorter leases are nothing new. Moreover, and contrary to the tone of some commentary, growing numbers of... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What will Bachelet 2.0 mean for Chile? This weekend’s Chilean Presidential Election may go down as the most one-sided affair in recent memory, with former president Michelle Bachelet set to sweep to a second term in office. But while the... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Inflation Report provided some superficial support for expectations that interest rates will rise sooner than the MPC suggested back in August. But we still think that the disinflationary... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks longer-term problems A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next couple of years. But history suggests that it is difficult to sustain strong energy-led growth over a... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep 13.) September's fall in euro-zone industrial production indicates that the sector will have dragged on GDP growth in Q3 as a whole. 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Why are mortgage repayments on the rise? Increased housing transactions and a decline in the stock of interest-only mortgages have boosted mortgage principal repayments, and allowed lenders to advance more mortgages without having to... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) Despite a modest fall in September, the uptrend in machinery orders remains intact and points to a further rebound in business investment. However, the recovery may not be strong enough to offset the... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
