Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia set to maintain faster growth rate Malaysia's economy gained pace in the third quarter, driven by faster private consumption growth and a recovery in exports. Although households may soon start to feel the strain of high debt levels... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Message from the MPC - ignore our guidance! The changes to the MPC's unemployment forecasts revealed in its November Inflation Report last week forced the Committee to play down the strict interpretation of its own forward guidance that... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Credit ratings influence stock price valuations There is significant cross-country variation in the price/earnings ratios of euro-zone stock markets. This variation appears to be at least partly justified by differences in the average credit... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) There is no evidence that the fall in industrial production in October is a temporary effect triggered by the government shutdown that will be reversed in November. But equally, the rise in... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes indicate that monthly GDP grew by a respectable 0.2% m/m. For the third quarter as a whole, this suggests some slight upside... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen and upside for Japanese equities The Nikkei closed back above 15,000 today, helped by a renewed decline in the yen past 100 to the dollar. We expect Japanese equities to advance further and the currency to continue to weaken, due... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trade deficit revisions won’t take rand out of firing line The South African rand rallied yesterday following revisions to the methodology used to compile monthly trade data that resulted in a significant fall in the trade deficit. But the rebound has proved... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Subdued recovery in Hong Kong Another disappointing set of GDP figures for Hong Kong has tempered hopes for a strong revival of growth. A pick-up in global trade flows should help over the coming year, but we expect Hong Kong's... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh falls in Latin American currencies Latin American currencies have tumbled against the US dollar since mid-October and in many cases they are close to the lows that they reached during the height of this summer’s market sell-off... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exchange rates to frame EM monetary policy in near term Currency movements will continue to play a major part in determining emerging market (EM) monetary policy. Countries where currencies have weakened alongside large current account deficits - Brazil... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Action on energy bills could provide modest consumer boost Attention on what has been termed the “cost of living crisis” has fuelled speculation that December’s Autumn Statement will include measures to cut energy bills. And even if funding of the ‘green’... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India pinning too-high hopes on boost from monsoon On the back of the strongest monsoon in six years, policymakers in India appear confident that a bumper crop will translate into stronger growth and help tame inflation. While the monsoon will help at... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & ULC (Q3) The trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $41.8bn in September, from $38.7bn, suggesting that third-quarter GDP growth will need to be revised down to around 2.5% annualised, from 2.8%. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's trade figures confirm that, for the third quarter as a whole, exports were a material drag on GDP growth, which we estimate was 2.5% annualised. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen plays the continuity card At her Senate nomination hearing today, the current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen carefully defended the Fed's policy and regulatory actions over the past few years, suggesting that her approach will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
