Capital Daily China currency liberalisation unlikely to affect US Treasuries 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is slowing globalisation a threat to the US stock market? Labour’s share of income has plummeted in the United States during the past decade. This has provided an important prop to the stock market because its flipside has been a surge in the share of income... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys highlight uneven pace of growth Although the global recovery seems to be gradually gaining momentum, led by faster growth in the US, preliminary business surveys for November underline how uneven growth is. In particular, China’s... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November’s fall in euro-zone consumer confidence adds to signs that the eurozone recovery may have lost some momentum in Q4. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Norwegian property values poised to spike again? Norwegian commercial property outperformed over 2009-12 and has recently accelerated again. Yet with rents now back at or above past peaks and yields at historically low levels, the headroom for... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure overhang weighing on New York and New Jersey The rise in the foreclosure inventory in New York and New Jersey in the third quarter provides one more reason to think that housing market prospects in these two States are relatively weak. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s exchange rate pegs? The non-oil producing MENA countries have historically tended to back up their currency pegs to the US dollar by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. But the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 the low point for Mexican GDP We expect Mexico’s poor performance in the third quarter to be the low point for the economy. While GDP growth will struggle to top 1.2% this year, it remains on course to accelerate to over 4% during... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s hands are tied The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today but gave its clearest indication yet that the next move in interest rates will be up. The renewed slump in economic growth means that the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs point to weak industrial demand As if the uncertainty over Fed tapering were not enough to worry about, early business survey indicators from China and the euro-zone suggest that demand for industrial commodities will disappoint. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the Plenum mean for China’s growth? The reform package agreed at the Third Plenum is unlikely to have a big impact on China's immediate economic outlook but, if implemented effectively, it should allow China to sustain stronger growth... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Oct.) Although October’s public finance figures were a little disappointing, borrowing this year still looks set to come in substantially below the OBR’s March forecast. While the Chancellor is likely to... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3 13) A sizeable boost in new-build demand from the Help to Buy equity loan scheme has helped stimulate a recovery in housebuilding. But capacity constraints will prevent a rapid return to pre-crisis... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Default remains a genuine concern in Venezuela We remain sceptical about the ability of the Venezuelan government to service its mounting foreign currency debt over the medium term. Default remains a clear risk, especially if oil prices fall. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan probably on hold until second half of 2014 The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current pace of asset purchases after its Board meeting today was no surprise. Governor Kuroda emphasised the Bank’s willingness to ease further, but also... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s anaemic recovery may be losing more steam. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
