Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia’s fiscal woes a result of weak growth In spite of mounting speculation that Croatia’s debt burden will force the authorities to turn to the IMF for help, we think that the country might still be able to avoid a bail-out. Even so, these... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov 13.) Today's downbeat flash PMI adds to the evidence that the recent economic rebound is fading. The efforts of policymakers to slow credit growth are set to further weigh on growth in the months ahead. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value gains remain yield-driven All-property yields fell a little further in October, helping capital values to rise by 0.6%m/m. This took the total gain since April to 2% and was also enough to push the year-on-year growth rate... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's economy will remain shackled Today’s revised GDP data showed that Singapore's economy expanded in the third quarter, despite an advanced estimate released last month pointing toward contraction. A gradual global recovery should... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed minutes may shed light on unemployment threshold debate 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes suggest December taper not out of the question The key takeaway from the minutes of the late October FOMC meeting is that, despite the government shutdown, the Fed was still open to tapering its monthly asset purchases at the mid-December meeting. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Stronger growth and low rates support UK markets UK markets are being supported by a favourable combination of accelerating economic growth, weakening inflation and very low interest rates. Granted, the MPC has brought forward to the third quarter... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Industry still strong, but growth elsewhere slowing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) signals that the economy has slowed for a second successive month, despite continued strength in industry. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 13) The further decline in existing home sales in October is the result of the earlier hike in mortgage interest rates. The immediate outlook for existing home sales is negative, but the loosening in... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes a weak start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing Q3 GDP growth figures, today’s release of activity data for October suggests that the Russian economy made a weak start to Q4 too. Indeed, the only crumb of comfort... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is one of a few reasons why the Fed is unlikely to be too concerned by the fall in CPI inflation to a four-year low of 1.0%, from 1.2% in September. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update South East offices at the forefront of the secondary recovery There were signs in IPD’s Q3 data that the recovery in secondary capital values has begun, albeit slow and not universal. Amongst the bright spots was the South East office market and, with rents now... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bonds continue to be shunned EPFR Global data reveal that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging market (EM) bonds were negative in October for the fifth month running. By contrast, flows into EM equities were... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Uncertainty over Fed tapering weighs on currencies After a period of relative calm in October, many Asian currencies have again come under pressure in the past couple of weeks. The sell-off follows renewed speculation that the Fed might start to taper... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: ignoring the lessons from Venezuela? Several high profile changes to Argentina's cabinet have reawakened speculation that the country is on the brink of formalising a multiple exchange rate system. If the experience of Venezuela is... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Nov.) November’s MPC minutes echoed the message of the Bank of England’s November Inflation Report that UK monetary policy is on hold for the foreseeable future. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
