Europe Commercial Property Update Is the dip in Prague office rents the start of a softer trend? The dip in Prague office rents in the third quarter was consistent with our existing forecast and is not a cause for alarm. That said, with only a modest upturn in occupier demand likely over the next... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the outlook for existing home sales changed? The drop in the pending home sales numbers for September suggests that the immediate outlook for existing home sales is weak. We have therefore revised down our whole-year forecasts for 2013. The... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Which assets will prove resilient to Fed tapering? The Fed now looks as if it will start to scale back its asset purchases next spring, although the tone of the FOMC's late-October statement suggests that the process might even begin earlier. As the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack An uneven recovery Growth in Emerging Europe continues to accelerate, but the recovery remains uneven. Central Europe, and Poland in particular, is leading the way. This is thanks to the recent improvement in key euro... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Little sign of recovery in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth was probably unchanged from Q2 in the third quarter. Although there is evidence of a recovery in Emerging Asia, growth in Latin America probably slowed in Q3... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Any fall in French unemployment will be largely illusory Contrary to expectations, French President François Hollande may fulfil his promise to reduce unemployment by the end of the year. But he will do so by relying on temporary initiatives rather than... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities fall, market rates rise China's stock market fell in late October as money-market rates surged. A rerun of June's cash crunch is not on the cards, but there is increasing evidence that the policy stance is shifting back... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 13) House price gains gathered pace in October, with another strong rise over the month. The risk that these gains trigger a self-fulfilling house price boom in more areas of the country is growing, but... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan to record gradual recovery in 2014 GDP data for Taiwan released today showed the economy slowed sharply in the second quarter. Looking ahead, we expect things to get better slowly, on the back of continued loose monetary policy and a... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator points to decent growth for Argentina’s economy in Q3. However, this is partly the result of a further loosening of the public purse strings in the run-up to last... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taper delay keeps monetary conditions loose With the Fed likely to keep the monetary taps flowing for even longer than previously expected, the world will be awash with liquidity for a long time to come. There are tentative signs that this is... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Although it fell slightly, UK consumer confidence remained high in October and should continue to buttress growth in household spending, in spite of the headwinds presented by falling real pay and the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease further The BoJ today only marginally tweaked its economic forecasts, and took a sanguine view of the upcoming consumption tax hike. It was therefore no surprise that policy settings were left unchanged... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high in October and points to a further rebound in industrial production in coming months. Meanwhile, labour cash earnings edged up in September, but the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
