Canada Economics Update Federal Budget 2011 The new Conservative majority government now aims to tackle its updated C$36.2bn deficit essentially over four years, which we think will prove far too optimistic. A global economic slowdown, a drop... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export recovery lacks volume Canada's gradual export recovery, particularly in terms of volumes, reflects the fragile US economic turnaround and the runaway Canadian dollar; which has been pushed up in the wake of the commodities... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to differ much from first version If the Bank of Canada was trying to hint in last week's statement that a rate hike might be on the way then that message was largely drowned out by the unrelenting flow of weak economic data coming... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first The data released last week strongly suggested that the recovery has hit its second "soft patch" which, for an expansion that is less than two years old, is troubling to say the least. Admittedly... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The very disappointing 54,000 increase in May's non-farm payrolls, down sharply from a 232,000 gain in April, will undoubtedly lead to calls for the Fed to continue with its large-scale asset... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (May) & Construction Spending (Apr.) The sharp decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 19-month low of 53.5 in May, from 60.4, will only add to fears that the economy has hit another "soft patch". That decline comes on the heels of... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning highlighted that ultimately it will raise rates at some point, this year or next year, but even then it said the extent of any policy... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The fall back in consumer confidence in May was most likely due to the combination of the sharp decline in house prices in the first quarter, the more recent flat lining of equity prices, the uptick... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q1) The further fall in house prices in the first quarter means that on the Case-Shiller index prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression. On that occasion, the peak in... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2011) The pick up in GDP growth to 3.9% annualised in the first quarter, from 3.1% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely to be sustained. With the temporary boost to growth from sharply higher energy and auto... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Twin threats to banks' income It's ironic that in the same week that the movie of the book "Too Big To Fail" was first premiered on American television, it was revealed that the net income of US banks was higher in the first... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter growth slowdown The week ahead will be dominated by first quarter GDP and the Bank of Canada's policy decision. We estimate that Canada's economy grew by 3.7% annualised in the first quarter. Temporary disruptions to... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal consolidation will mean slower GDP growth The shift towards fiscal consolidation is another reason to suspect that the US economic recovery will remain muted. We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.5% this year to 2.0% in 2012. In an environment... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long is healthy profit growth likely to last? US corporate profits expanded at an annualised rate of just over 5% in Q1, following an increase of nearly 10% in the prior quarter. Margins were boosted by renewed downward pressure on unit labour... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A temporary slowdown Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment increased by around 150,000 in May. That would be the smallest increase since January and would be... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking The lagged effect of the rapid run-up in commodity prices over the past year will push CPI inflation up from 3.1% in April to close to 4% by the summer. But now that the upward trend in commodity... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
