US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The annual rate of decline in our Capital Economics' measure of M3 continues to slow. (See Chart below.) There is a good chance that the widely expected second round of quantitative easing from the... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep 10) Manufacturing output contracted by 0.2% m/m in September, illustrating that the previously robust recovery in the factory sector is definitely behind us now and this could even be the start of a... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Prices start to fall back (Oct 10) House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What could the foreclosure crisis mean? The recent freezing of foreclosure proceedings by some major banks may not necessarily be a disaster. But we are mindful that in its early stages the sub-prime crisis did not look too severe either... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Sep.) September's consumer prices and retail sales figures will do little to ease the Fed's concerns that inflation is too low and that economic growth is too weak. Indeed, in a speech today Fed Chairman... 15th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & PPI (Sep.) The widening in the international trade deficit in August, and in particular the jump in the bilateral deficit with China to a record high, will only fuel growing speculation of a currency war. 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Prices start to fall back House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Prices start to fall back (Oct 10) House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No mortgage rate miracle The Fed has not even announced a second round of quantitative easing, yet 30-year mortgage rates have plunged to record lows. But even the mortgage bargain of a lifetime may not be enough to drag the... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) September's payroll report adds to the evidence that the recovery is losing what little forward momentum it had and will harden the resolve of the more dovish Fed officials to press forward with... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed edging towards more QE It is looking increasingly likely that the Fed will announce a new round of quantitative easing, probably before the end of the year. Our guess is that it will opt for a smaller scale open-ended... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Sep.) & Personal Income (Aug.) There is nothing in the economic reports released today to change our view that GDP growth will stumble along at a 2% annualised pace for some considerable time yet. 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deleveraging by default Households continued to reduce their debt in the second quarter, but it will still be a few years before they are in any fit shape to become the engine of growth once again. It is also worrying that... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
